...I mean it's easy to blame the person in charge, when most of the time it's the personnel out in the field that's really the issue.
Take the Scotland Football team for example (and I'm qualified to talk on this, I've been a long suffering fan since I first saw them beat France 2-0 in 1989, what a false dawn for me that was!!)...
Sacking Gordon Strachan because we didn't qualify for the 2018 World Cup and replacing him
with Alex McLeish was never going to solve anything, EVER!
There is nothing wrong with bringing in someone that can improve things, someone that has a proven record at a high level and a knack for getting the best out of limited stock...but that man isn't and never will be Alex McLeish.
His record since he left his first stint as Scotland manager (for 'left' read 'saw the pounds signs and a did a runner!') is average at best, and I'm probably being kind to the big man there, it's down right mediocre. The most successful stint he had came in a 10 game spell in charge of ZAMALEK.
WHO!?!?
Exactly! (Egyptian Premier League team, for the record).
What's worse is the fact Wee Gordy (Strachan) actually had one of the best strike-rates of any Scottish manager EVER! If you look at only those managers who have been in charge of the national team
for 20 or more games (not as many as you'd think, as it happens) Gordon Strachan has the second best win strike-rate of all!
It's not the manager it's the personnel...
I'm all for changing things up if the person that comes in has a proven track record of delivering what you're
after, but McLeish simply does not have that.
For me it kinda draws parallels with the CLOUDY DREAM situation.
Until this summer the talented grey had been trained by the Jefferson's, first Malcolm and then his daughter
Ruth.
After a novice chase season that provided a form line of...
1-1-2-2-2-2-1
...including a Grade 2 victory and a couple of Grade 1 seconds, he then went on to return the
following set of form figures in his second season chasing...
2-2-2-2-3-5
...some disappointing efforts in there, sure, but he had some tough tasks along the way and he wouldn't be the first second season chaser, and won't be the last, to find things tough when stepping out of
the novice ranks.
His owner, Trevor Hemmings, decided to change things up for his third season chasing, however, bringing in some new management for the horse to try and get better results from the 8yo grey.
That's fair enough, he pays the bills, it's his prerogative, he
clearly thinks the horse should be winning those graded races he's contesting.
So he moves the horse to Donald McCain.
Now I'm a fan of Donald McCain, don't get me wrong here, but the stats don't lie and if Hemmings want's to get Cloudy Dream winning the Graded races
he's likely to be contesting then I really don't think McCain is the man to be doing that, and the stats back me up.
Cloudy Dream ran in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree yesterday, a race I covered for my full NTF members.
Three horse came top of my
figures...
FRODON - 14/14
CLOUDY DREAM - 14/14
FLYING ANGEL - 13/14
This is what I wrote about Cloudy Dream...
"I’m a big fan of CLOUDY DREAM, have been for a long time, but I can’t back him at these short odds and I am having my doubts as to whether or not he’s up to G1/G2 level (1/11 at G1/G2 level – 6/9 Class 2 level & below). Donald McCain’s record in Class 1 races since 2014 is also a worry to me - 4/144 | 3.5% S/R | 57% below expectation - and he’s also only 1/57, 2p | 2% S/R | 56% below expectation in races worth 30k+ to the winner in the same period. I will in no way be shocked should Cloudy Dream win the race, but I just have my worries, worries that are enough to stop me getting involved
in him here."
Hemmings has changed the management of the horse to someone who is now 4/145 | 3% S/R in Class 1 races since 2014 and 1/58 | 2% S/R in races worth 30k+ to the winner.
Replacing Ruth Jefferson with Donald McCain is NOT going to solve the CLOUDY DREAM problem.
Hemmings has done a Scotland National team number here!
It doesn't make any
sense...
It's not the manager it's the personnel...
But if you are going to change the manager at least get in someone who can do the job your after...
...and talking
of doing the job you're after...
...my NTF stats did exactly the job I was after this weekend, with three races given the full NTF Trends shake-down producing two winners and a neck second.
The National Hunt season is now in full swing and the NTF Trends
are delivering just as I'd hoped...
I'm now off to finish my weekend notes for NTF members, there was plenty to notebook over the weekend for the coming weeks and I reckon I should also have another UTR Squad member to pluck from the Cheltenham and Aintree action...
I'll be back tomorrow with my regular winter column 'What We Learned From The Weekend', but remember there's plenty more going on from me within the full NTF Members Area.
There's plenty for you to fill your knowledge banks with :)
