Chester’s three day May meeting kicks into gear on
Wednesday and from a personal perspective it is by far and away one of my favourite flat meets of the year.
I love the intricacies of the ‘dog track’, the tactics, the pace angles, the twists and turns, etc…
It's also a fantastic meeting to dig into the stats side of
things.
For full NTF members I'll be giving the following four races a proper going over in the next of my in-depth race
guides...
Thursday
1.50 - Class 2 Gately PLC Handicap (5f)
3.35 - Grade 3 Ormonde Stakes
(1m5.5f)
Friday
1.50 - Class 2 Earl Grosvenor Handicap (7.5f)
3.35 - Class 2 Chester Cup
Handicap (2m2.5f)
The betting suggests the big handicap of the meeting - The Chester Cup - is wide open at the minute, the betting currently sitting at 8-1 the field, and although those at the head of the market look likely to be strong on my race trends I suspect there will be a couple further down the betting pecking order that will have slightly stronger 'trends claims' for the staying
contest.
I'll be looking to back at least two at decent prices in the race.
The opening 5f Handicap on Thursday is another race that looks particularly strong on the trends front and I'll be applying eight trends to the final field that ALL of the previous 15 winners of the
race have passed.
Now onto those men you want fighting your corner on the Roodee...
*I was tempted to just look at the figures from recent Chester festivals but in my opinion those stats are just a wee bit too on the niche side so I've extended my
analysis to include ALL Chester meetings in search of those Chester specialists...
Dascombe & Kingscote
It's a local track for local people...
Well not really but Tom Dascombe doesn't have to travel far at all with his Chester runners (16 miles, give or take) and he fires in a healthy stream of runners at the circuit. Particularly under the following conditions...
Tom Dascombe Trained | Richard Kingscote ridden | 5f - 7f trips | Good to Soft ground or quicker | Industry SP 12-1 or
shorter
Since 2013 that has returned...
22/66 | 33% S/R | +£50.16 BFLSP - W&P 42/66 | 64% S/R
An angle that has been profitable each year and also
fires comfortably above expectation (55% above to be precise).
They will have winners out with those conditions, of course, but over those shorter trips when the ground is faster than soft AND the market tells us they are not reaching the area of 'outsiderville', the Dascombe/Kingscote train is a lethal money making express...
Franny Norton
No-one knows the turns better...
It's simple. Franny Norton is the winning-most jockey at Chester in recent years...
49 winners from 288 rides (since 2013) - 17% S/R | -£48.69 BFLSP
Following him blind, however, will leave a massive hole in your pocket!
When we dig a bit deeper, however, we see his full Chester expertise really being
unleashed, particularly when he sits on a FRONT-RUNNER...
22/46 | 48% S/R | +£57.19 BFLSP
He almost converts 1 of every 2 rides at Chester when he goes from the front! That's quality, sheer tactical and track know-how
quality.
There are some interesting nuggets within those front-runner stats as well...
- A 47% Strike-Rate when riding for Mark Johnston on a front-runner
- A 52% S/R when riding a front-runner drawn in stall 5 or below
- An outstanding 71% S/R (10 from 14) when riding a 2yo front-runner
Admittedly it's not always easy to know when a 2yo is going to
blast off out front but if you've fast fingers you could well nick some in-running profits on a Norton front-running 2yo, the chances are once he's grabbed the early lead he isn't giving it back!
Andrew Balding
Unleashing unexposed handicappers since
2013...
Andrew Balding is relatively select with his Chester raiders but he does have a habit of making the 178 mile trip pay.
Since 2013 his overall stats at the track read...
37/176 | 21% S/R | +£102.00 BFLSP - W&P 86/176 | 49% S/R
And with figures like those you could, in theory, just take a pop at him blind.
But I like to dig deeper.
The following is where I'm interested in his runners...
Andrew Balding in Chester HANDICAPS | 7.5f - 1m4.5f trips | 1-7 Career starts | 0-2 Handicap starts
Which is an angle that has returned...
10/17 | 59% S/R | +£45.35 BFLSP - W&P 11/17 | 64% S/R
Profitable each of the last five years and firing handsomely above expectation (226% on average).
Aidan O'Brien
A favourite you can trust...
A nice and simple one for all you Fav backers out there and although this angle seems insanely simple,
which it is, it's also deadly accurate and profitable...
Aidan O'Brien favourites at Chester
9/14 | 64% S/R | +£10.36 BFLSP - W&P 12/14 | 86% S/R
Amazingly it's also 40% above expectation and has shown a profit on each of the last 4 years.
Simple. Profitable. Job done.
Now these four angles are for ALL Chester meetings throughout the season but there
should be at least a handful of qualifiers during the upcoming three day festival that starts tomorrow (Wednesday 9th May). They won't all win (chance would be a fine thing!) but you can be sure the horses in question will be primed for the job in hand by their respective connections.
I'll also have full NTF members primed for the job in hand with my in-depth Chester race
guides and you can grab your own slice of the action by securing your slot on the service today...
(There are some excellent recent examples of my NTF race guides on that link as well, make sure you check them out)
Whatever you choose to do I hope you have a profitable Chester meeting and remember, even if those Chester angles mentioned above fail
to do the business over the next three days they are well worth keeping on the radar for the entire season.
A long term view over short term profits is the key to success in this punting game...
Happy Punting
Ben (NTF)
*mini-angle stats sourced with the help of the excellent Proform
If you are the kind of punter that loves trends, lives for angles and gets excited about following horses that the wider racing population are foolishly ignoring, but simply don't have the time to do the hard graft yourself, then NTF is the service for you!
