Morning all

I've a free post on NTF for you all today but there is a bit of work taking place on the site at the minute so access may be intermittent for a couple hours. 

I've cut and paste the post into this email for you to make sure none of you miss the analysis...

Bet365 Classic Trial Day - Trends Analysis

I think we can safely say the flat season is very much clicking through the gears now and although there is still plenty of jumping action on the go (Punchestown, Perth, Sandown…) this is about the time my balance starts to tip towards the summer game.

I’ve still got a couple of races to analysis over the sticks for full members (Bet365 Gold Cup and Swinton Hurdle) but with the 1000 & 2000 Guineas looming large on the radar my focus does need to start switching.

Usually I would be firing up NTF’s little sister BDH (indeed I’ve covered both the Lincoln and the Spring Cup over there already this season) but things are going to be changing for me this summer. I’ve decided to release BDH back into the wild and pull everything back under the NTF umbrella, including moving to a new web-address and having a shiny new site built (exciting!).

My methods won’t be changing and the info I provide during both codes will still remain the same, it’s merely a case of having it all under one roof (like the early days) to make things easier for myself.

Anyway I’ll let you know more about that in the coming days and weeks as for now I want to take a little trends dive into two races at today’s Sandown Bet365 Classic Trial Day meeting.

It’s not a meeting I get overly involved in but there are some strong trends pointers for both the Esher Cup (1.50) and the Bet365 Mile (3.35), the only problem being we need to get two hot favourites beaten in both contests!

Let’s see if the trends give us an opportunity to go against them…

Esher Cup Trends (1.50 Sandown)

The past 14 winners (since race has been a Class 2 event) passed all of the following trends…

14/14 were rated 79-94

14/14 carried 9-04 – 8-04

14/14 Won 1 of their last 3 starts

14/14 were yet to win above Class 4 level

14/14 had no more than 8 career starts

14/14 had 0-1 starts in current season

14/14 were not ridden by a claimer

That gives 14 year stats of 14/59 | 24% S/R | +£43.58 LSP – W&P 28/59 | 47% S/R

Applying those trends to this years field leaves…

MERLIN MAGIC

DESERT WIND (Non-Runner)

Conclusion…

A real shame Desert Wind is now a N/R but MERLIN MAGIC looks a solid play against the Gosden fav. His jockey Silvestre De Sousa has an excellent recent record in handicaps at Sandown (10/40 | 25% S/R – W&P 25/40 | 63% S/R) and no jockey is in hotter form at present, with last year’s champion jock firing in nine winners in the past fortnight and a further 16 placed runners (from 54 rides). The opening mark of 88 for Merlin Magic also looks very appealing as he only finished a head behind the John Gosden trained Purser in a Newbury maiden last August and that one is now rated a lofty 105, suggesting there is plenty juice in this lads mark. Even if he doesn’t win today he’d be one you’d want to be keeping onside as he moves up through the handicap ranks.

Bet365 Mile (3.35 Sandown)

The past 15 winners passed all of the following trends…

15/15 rated 108+

15/15 top 3 finish 1 of last 3 starts

15/15 top 2 finish 1 of last 5 starts

15/15 previously run at Group level

15/15 previously won at least at Listed level

15/15 previously won over at least 7f but no further tan 1m2.5f

15/15 ran at C1 or C2 level over 7f-1m2.5f last time out

That gives 15 year stats of 15/49 | 31% S/R | +£31.70 LSP – W&P 24/49 | 49% S/R

Applying those trends to this years field leaves…

HERE COMES WHEN

STORMY ANTARCTIC

ALJAZZI

Conclusion…

The obvious worry for Stormy Atlantic is the ground, with all 5 of his wins coming on Good to Soft or softer and 3 of them coming on Soft or Heavy. There is, however, rain forecast so if that does get into the ground he does start to enter the equation.

HERE COMES WHEN is another that may prefer softer ground but he won’t need it as soft so the rain should bring conditions almost perfect for him here. The ace up his sleeve today is the fact he runs very well fresh, with form off a break of 121+ days of 2112311, including a 2nd in this in 2015.

ALJAZZI looks more flexible with regards to the ground and gets a good pull at the weights with her male counterparts in this, only Here Comes When comes out better on the adjusted figures. If you look at her over 7f-1m trips when returning off a break of 61 days or more you get a strong form line of 11141 (4/5 – all 4 career wins) and with those conditions met here she is of serious interest.

If Addeybb can translate his Lincoln victory to graded level then he will prove very hard to beat but I’ll happily pitch against him with Here Comes When & Aljazzi.

Best of luck if you are getting involved in today’s Sandown action

Ben (NTF)

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