Cheltenham to Aintree - A positive or a negative?

Published: Tue, 04/10/18

Cheltenham to Aintree. A path that a huge percentage of runners at this week's Grand National Festival will have tread, most going straight to Aintree off the back of a crack at the mother of all festivals, the Cheltenham version.

As always there is plenty of baloney talked about Cheltenham taking too much out of a horse and leaving them 'empty' or 'below par' for the Aintree challenge, but the figures simply don't back that up at all.

This specific angle is likely to be halfheartedly talked about in the media during the Aintree Festival, generally by people giving an un-researched opinion rather than hard facts. I'm never too interested in that, I prefer the facts rather than some snappy sound-bite from a presenter.

So here goes...

I looked at the last six Aintree Grand National Festivals.

In that period there have been 126 races with 1920 runners, producing 126 winners (obviously!) and 383 win and places horses.

Here is the record of those runners that had their LAST START at the Cheltenham Festival...

79/714 | 11% S/R | +£96.20 BFLSP

Win & Place 212/714 | 30% S/R

So 37% of Aintree runners had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival.

More astonishing, however, is that 63% of Aintree WINNERS had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival!

A pretty fair indicator that anyone saying a run at the Cheltenham Festival is a negative for those that come on to the Aintree equivalent.

It quite clearly isn't a negative and they are simply talking garbage!

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I wanted to look further than just simply running at the Cheltenham Festival though. I also wanted to check the record of those horses that WON at Cheltenham and then came on to run at Aintree.

Here's what my digging returned...

21/61 | 34% S/R | +£23.12 BFLSP

Win & Place 37/61 | 61% S/R

Or in other words 17% of Aintree winners WON at the Cheltenham Festival. Backing them all gave you a tasty strike-rate and a bit of profit to play with (worth noting, however, it wasn't a profit each of the last six years).

If you want to tighten things up a bit further it's best to concentrate on those that are running either at the same class level or 1 class level up or down from their Cheltenham effort (18/40 | 45% S/R | +£27.53 BFLSP - W&P 27/40 | 68% S/R).

Certainly an angle to be keeping a close eye on although admittedly this year, like last year, it will all depend on how many of the Irish winners make the trip back over in search of the Cheltenham/Aintree double.

Back to those Cheltenham winners though...

I took a closer look at the Cheltenham winners stats at Aintree and discovered the following two sub-angles...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree in Non-Handicaps

19/47 | 40% S/R | +£0.48 BFLSP

Win & Place 31/47 | 66% S/R

Won't make you rich(!?) but certainly a hefty 40% strike-rate at play there...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree over Hurdles

13/30 | 43% S/R | +£33.75 BFLSP

Win & Place 21/30 | 70% S/R

A bit more like it on the profits front!

Both interesting little sub-plots for those that like to dig a bit deeper.

Combining the two improves the strike-rates but again the BFLSP figure takes a hit somewhat...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree in Non-Hcp Hurdles

11/24 | 46% S/R | +£3.11 BFLSP

Win & Place 18/24 | 75% S/R

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There is another potent Cheltenham to Aintree angle I've uncovered and again, although it won't make you rich, it's definitely one that's well worth keeping on your radar...

Started with an SP of 9/4 or less (at Cheltenham) and recorded a top 2 finish at Cheltenham Festival last time out...

13/15 | 87% S/R | +£10.66 BFLSP - Win & Place 14/15 | 93% S/R

That angle provides the rather fetching form line of...

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*Douvan (fell) being the only one not to even place and stopping the 100% W&P S/R for the angle

All very interesting I'm sure you will agree and if you hear anyone saying a run or indeed a win at Cheltenham is a negative when coming on to Aintree then just bear the above stats in mind.

Let the fun begin...

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Ben (NTF)

Majority of stats sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database