This time next week we'll either be riding high on the wings of Cheltenham glory or drowning in the depths of festival failure!!
I hope and work for the former, whilst fearing the latter!!
Whatever state I'm in come a week today I'm sure I'll have enjoyed the ride and as always I'm excited to find out what the four days hold for me...
I've been burning the midnight oil like a good 'un over the past couple of weeks and today I'm going to share some of that analysis with you, in the form of some trends digging for that brute of a race that is the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle!
As you do!
I did something very similar for you last year, highlighting the chances of 33-1 shot DIABLE DE SIVOLA, who, on the day, flashed up the hill from an uncompromising position to finish an agonizing fifth! In fairness you would have been paid out E/W if you had backed it on the day, if like me, however, you had backed it before final decs came out you would have been left spitting feathers at your TV with only four places being paid. F@*! T*!@ S*!@*
Still, it showed I was looking at the right horses in this ultra tricky handicap and was a solid pointer to the fact my trends were on the right track for the race.
But back to this seasons Fred Winter Analysis...
This isn't currently a race that appears on my 21 race schedule for full NTF members but it is
one I want to continue having on my radar, with a view to future inclusion on the full service. I may yet include it on the full schedule next week, I have the flexibility to move things around, depending on how other races on the day shape up.
In fairness it's probably one of the trickiest
races to master over the 4 days, with five of the last six winners returning at 25/1, 33/1 (x2), 25/1 & 40/1.
In fact eight of the 13 winners have gone off at an SP of 14/1 or bigger.
No denying that when it comes to tricky Cheltenham Festival puzzles this one is bang up there!
I don't mind that though, in fact I relish it, especially when it's a race that is starting to look
strong on the trends front.
There are currently 34 horses still entered in the race so to cut that down to a manageable shortlist I used the following main trends...
1 13/13 had an OR of 134 & below (0/49 OR 135+)
2 13/13 no more than 14 career starts
3 13/13 were making their
track debut
4 12/13 were IRE or FR bred
5 12/13 DSLR 45 or less
6 12/13 ran in a non-handicap hurdle
LTO
7 12/13 previous won at least at C4 level but not above Listed level
