Is there a better feeling in this sport than watching a much loved grey pinging the last on his way to landing one of the seasons major races?
Well I suppose backing that grey at juicy odds is a pretty great feeling as well!
And that's exactly the feeling the
NTF massive had yesterday when Smad Place landed the Old Roan Chase at double figures!
The Old Roan Chase was the race under full NTF trends analysis on Sunday and this is what I wrote about Smad Place in the conclusion/selection section of the guide...
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SMAD PLACE (A King) – I fancied him for this last year and although he ran well in 4th he probably just found his handicap mark that day (167) too tough to overcome. He runs off only 159 here and that gives him a big chance and it’s also worth noting that when carrying 11-06 & below over fences he has a strong form line of 11211U2 (4/7) compared to a record of
1/11 when carrying 11-7+ (his last 6 starts have seen him carry 11-7+, indeed 5 of his last 6 have seen him carry 11-10+, where he is 0/8). The softened ground will suit (7 of his 8 wins on G/S or softer – 1/8 on Good ground), we know he can win first time up and he may get to have a crack off the front end as there is a chance they won’t be quite as forceful on Shantou Village in this bigger field.
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...and here's what some of the NTF members had to say about it after the race...
As always Ben, SUPERB!!!!
Love the jumps!!!
Michael M
Great analysis and great shout. Just great cheering home a 16-1 (early odds) winner !! Boom..Nice Sunday win.
Damian H
A fine performance by Smad Place and then followed up in the
next race with one of your well handicapped horses (Vintage Clouds). Well done Ben
John L
Nice one Ben, Smad Place 16/1, Vintage Clouds 6/1 - happy days.
Ray D
What a horse – Smad Place! Then Vintage Clouds – hats off
Ben!
Ian M
>>>Don't miss another Smad Place...
To see the full race guide and exactly how Smad Place finished joint top of my trends (on full marks) then slide along to this page and scroll down to the middle section, where there are a
number of race guide examples.
One other factor that pulled me towards Smad Place was the fact he was likely to be on or very near the front end. As you will have seen from my recent FREE NTF Guide Front-Runners are a highly profitable group to be backing and I was also aware that...
Jockey Wayne Hutchinson had a healthy 31% strike-rate on pace-setters...
Trainer Alan King's front runners strike at a rate of 37%...
The Hutchinson/King combo also fire at the 37% strike-rate...
That's powerful info to have at hand and although I knew Smad Place wasn't guaranteed a free shot out front I knew there was a very high chance he would be in the front 2 or 3, which is exactly where Hutchinson had him. From there the jockey could use his front-running expertise to judge when to
push the buttons on the grey and make his winning move, which he did at the third fence from home.
The past three days have really seen the National Hunt game crack into overdrive and with Wetherby and Ascot steaming into view this coming weekend the jumping game is just going to get better and better...
I'm now off to finish my weekend notes for
NTF members, there was plenty to notebook over the weekend for the coming weeks and I reckon I should also have another UTR Squad member to pluck from the Cheltenham and Aintree action...
There's plenty for you to fill your knowledge banks with :)
