[Winston] Churchill: "History is written by the victors"...

Published: Thu, 05/04/17

...and Churchill (the horse!) is gearing up to write himself into the history books this Saturday by landing the first classic of the season at Newmarket, in the shape of the 2000 Guineas.

Aidan O'Brien's superstar colt currently heads the betting at around 11/8 and he comes into his 3yo season with a fearsome reputation and is, unquestionably, the one they all have to beat on Saturday. 

But is Churchill unbeatable? 

Potentially and he does have what I would consider a 'prime profile' for the big race. However, so do four others in the field (well three and a bit is probably more accurate!) and they have all had a race under their belts this season to blow away the cobwebs, something Churchill hasn't had. 

Just because these other runners also hold a 'prime profile' for the Guineas doesn't guarantee they will finish ahead of the fav of course, far from it, or even near the fav, and Churchill could be a very special horse indeed, but they are trading with just a bit more juice in their price and that makes the race a bit more of an intriguing puzzle than it first looks...


Full members of Badly Drawn Horse will receive my in-depth race guide on the 2000 Guineas tomorrow afternoon (Friday).

They will find out which runners fit my exclusive profiles.

They will find out where my money is going and why.

And knowing the BDH/NTF subscribers like I do they will either agree with me and tread the same path or nod, agree, see where I'm coming from and then use the race guides to come to their own conclusions!

Which, in my opinion, is exactly why the guides/service are a great addition to any punters betting weaponry. 

I won't simply supply you with a name and expect you to follow me in blindly. I'm not about that. Never have been, never will be. Doesn't interest me...

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When profiling the 2000 Guineas using race trends/profiling I utilise 10 individual angles, painstakingly researched by myself.

13 of the last 15 2000 Guineas winners passed ALL of the 10 trends I've sourced for the race.

Here are four of the main trends I have applied to this years contenders...


1             (GB) or (IRE) bred

2             Top 3 finish last time out

3             Top 4 finish on racecourse debut

4             Had an OR of 109+


There are another six trends that all runners will have applied to them.

I also have a sub-set of four trends for this race to whittle down the shortlist further.

Taking all angles into account I expect to have a short-list of around three or four.

It's only a ten runner field this year so I'll probably play two of them.

The 2000 Guineas, however, is merely the start of things on BDH. On Sunday I'll be getting stuck into the even tougher puzzle of the female equivalent; the 1000 Guineas. It's often a much trickier puzzle to solve and it's likely to be a much deeper field going to post, but that's fine by me, a deeper/larger field gives me some juicier prices to take a swing at, a bit like the Newbury Spring Cup that I covered on the FREE BDH Blog recently.

The race guides actually only make up about 50% of the analysis I'll be doing on the service this summer.

The exclusive BDH (Badly Drawn Horse) squad and, newly introduced last season, Handicap Sleepers will make up the rest of the 'work-load'.

I'm currently working through my own notes behind the scenes to pull together the Handicap Sleepers report, a method that was tightened up considerably as the season progressed last term, giving a much more focused look on the runners in the guide.

I'll also be keeping a close eye on this weekends action looking for any more that I can add to the squad(s) as I prime both the BDH & Handicap Sleeper squads for the season ahead.




Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

p.s. the quote in the title may or may not have been said by the great Winston Churchill, there has often been some debate about it's actual origins, but hey, it works well in conjunction with Churchill the horse so...Winston Churchill it is! :)



Thanks for being a loyal NTF/BDH reader





































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