Chester’s three day May meeting kicks into gear on
Wednesday and from a personal perspective it is by far and away one of my favourite flat meets of the year.
I love the intricacies of the ‘dog track’, the tactics, the pace angles, the twists and turns, etc…
It's also a fantastic meeting to dig into the stats side of
things.
For full BDH members I'll be giving the Chester Cup a proper going over in the next of my in-depth race
guides.
I've just completed my preliminary analysis of the race and I'm happy to report that my figures look to be pointing away from those who head the market at this current time.
I suspect I'll be backing at least two at decent prices in the race. The ones that my trends
point towards are just the types of prices I love to have on my side. One of the shortlisters particularly catches my eye as when the owner of the horse books the jockey that's in the plate tomorrow their runners return a form line of 1110351414 (since 2012).
I've got a bit more work to do on the guide before it goes out to members but it should be hitting the members
area around 5pm tonight...
Now onto those men you want fighting your corner on the Roodee...
*I was tempted to just look at the figures from recent Chester festivals but in my opinion those stats are just a wee bit too on the niche side so I've extended my analysis to
include ALL Chester meetings in search of those Chester specialists...
Dascombe & Kingscote
It's a local track for local people...
Well not
really but Tom Dascombe doesn't have to travel far at all with his Chester runners (16 miles, give or take) and he fires in a healthy stream of runners at the circuit. Particularly under the following conditions...
Tom Dascombe Trained | Richard Kingscote ridden | 5f - 7f trips | Good to Soft ground or quicker | Industry SP 12-1 or
shorter
Since 2013 that has returned...
19/56 | 34% S/R | +£48.77 BFLSP - W&P 37/56 | 66% S/R
An angle that has been profitable each year and also
fires comfortably above expectation.
They will have winners out with those conditions, of course, but over those shorter trips when the ground is faster than good and the market tells us they are not reaching the area of outsiderville the Dascombe/Kingscote train is a lethal money making express...
Franny Norton
No-one knows the turns better...
It's simple. Franny Norton is the winning-most jockey at Chester in recent years...
49 winners from 283 rides (since 2012) - 17% S/R | +£77.11 BFLSP
But his full Chester expertise is really unleashed when he sits on a FRONT-RUNNER...
23/48 | 48% S/R | +£81.56
BFLSP
He almost converts 1 of every 2 rides at Chester when he goes from the front! That's quality, sheer tactical and track know-how quality.
There are some interesting nuggets within those front-runner stats as
well...
- A 50% Strike-Rate when riding for Mark Johnston on a front-runner
- A 59% S/R when riding a front-runner in a race worth LESS than 13k to the winner
- A crazy 79% S/R (11 from 14)
when riding a 2yo front-runner
Admittedly it's not always easy to know when a 2yo is going to blast off out front but if you've fast fingers you could well nick some in-running profits on a Norton front-running 2yo, the chances are once he's grabbed the eary lead he isn't giving it back!
Andrew Balding
Unleashing unexposed handicappers since 2012...
Andrew Balding is relatively select with his Chester raiders but he does have a habit of making the 178 mile trip pay.
Since 2012 his overall stats at the track read...
34/154 | 22% S/R | +£54.46 BFLSP - W&P 74/154 | 48% S/R
And with figures like those you could, in theory, just take a pop at him
blind.
But I like to dig deeper.
The following is where I'm interested in his runners...
Andrew Balding in Chester HANDICAPS | Aged 3yo-4yo | 3-12 Career starts | SP (Industry) 9-1 or
less
Which is an angle that has returned...
22/53 | 42% S/R | +£71.36 BFLSP - W&P 33/53 | 62% S/R
Profitable each of the last five years and firing handsomely above
expectation (99% on average).
Now these three angles are for ALL Chester meetings throughout the season but I will be keeping a close eye on them for FULL BDH
Members for the upcoming three day festival that starts tomorrow (Wednesday 10th May).
You can, of course, keep an eye on these angle's yourself or you can join the full BDH service and let me do the hard work for you...
Whatever you choose to do I hope you have a profitable Chester
meeting and remember, even if those Chester angles mentioned above fail to do the business over the next three days they are well worth keeping on the radar for the entire season.
A long term view over short term profits is the key to success in this punting game...
Happy
Punting
https://www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk/bdh-subscription-sign-up-free-list-discount/
*mini-angle stats sourced with the help of the excellent Proform
