Cheltenham to Aintree - A positive or a negative?

Published: Wed, 04/05/17

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(Amazingly!) I had a bit of spare time on my hands yesterday so instead of putting my feet up for a bit (like a normal person!) I decided to dig into some more Aintree Stats using my trusted Proform database.

Well it wasn't really 'digging' as such it was more 'updating' my notes on the record of those horses that had their last start prior to Aintree at the Cheltenham Festival.

There is plenty of baloney talked about Cheltenham taking too much out of a horse and leaving them 'empty' or 'below par' for the Aintree challenge but the figures simply don't back that up at all.

This specific angle is likely to be halfheartedly talked about in the media during the Aintree Festival, generally by people giving an un-researched opinion rather than hard facts. I'm never too interested in that, I prefer the facts rather than some snappy sound-bite from a presenter.

So here goes...

I looked at the last six Aintree Grand National Festivals.

In that period there have been 126 races with 1920 runners, producing 126 winners (obviously!) and 387 win and places horses.

Here is the record of those runners that had their LAST START at the Cheltenham Festival...

76/697 | 11% S/R | +£8.66 BFLSP

Win & Place 203/697 | 29% S/R

So 36% of Aintree runners had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival.

More astonishing, however, is that 60% of Aintree WINNERS had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival!

A pretty fair indicator that anyone saying a run at the Cheltenham Festival is a negative for those that come on to the Aintree equivalent. 

It quite clearly isn't a negative and they are simply talking garbage!
 
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I wanted to look further than just simply running at the Cheltenham Festival though. I also wanted to check the record of those horses that WON at Cheltenham and then came on to run at Aintree.

Here's what my digging returned...

20/61 | 33% S/R | +£22.34 BFLSP

Win & Place 36/61 | 59% S/R

Or in other words 16% of Aintree winners WON at the Cheltenham Festival. Backing them all gave you a tasty strike-rate and a healthy little profit.


Certainly an angle to be keeping a close eye on although admittedly this year it will all depend on how many of the Irish winners make the trip back over in search of the Cheltenham/Aintree double, there may not quite be as many qualifiers as other years...

Back to those Cheltenham winners though...

I took a closer look at the Cheltenham winners stats at Aintree and discovered the following two sub-angles...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree in Non-Handicaps

18/45 | 40% S/R | +£1.65 BFLSP

Win & Place 30/45 | 67% S/R

Won't make you rich(!?) but certainly a hefty strike-rate at play there...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree over Hurdles

13/30 | 43% S/R | +£34.52 BFLSP

Win & Place 20/30 | 67% S/R

A bit more like it on the profits front!

Both interesting little sub-plots for those that like to dig a bit deeper.

Combining the two improves the strike-rates but again the LSP figure takes a hit somewhat...

Cheltenham winners at Aintree in Non-Hcp Hurdles

11/23 | 48% S/R | +£4.83 BFLSP

Win & Place 17/23 | 74% S/R

 
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There is another potent Cheltenham to Aintree angle I've uncovered and again, although it won't make you rich, it's definitely one that's well worth keeping on your radar...


Started with an SP of 3/1 or less (at Cheltenham) and recorded a top 2 finish at Cheltenham Festival last time out...


14/19 | 74% S/R | +£8.35 BFLSP - Win & Place 17/19 | 89% S/R


That angle provides the rather fetching form line of 111131111132113F111


All very interesting I'm sure you will agree and if you hear anyone saying a run or indeed a win at Cheltenham is a negative when coming on to Aintree then just bear the above stats in mind.


Let the fun begin...







Ben (NTF)


All stats sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database








































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