The countdown for the Grand National is well and truly on!

I expect my phone and Facebook private messages to start lighting up soon with texts from once a year family members and long forgotten friends, saying one of two things...

"Who wins the National then?"

Or

"What do you think of so and so's chances in the National"

..actually there is a third one...

"I got xx xx in the work sweepie, you think I've got a chance?"

That one's not too bad, they can't change their sweepie selection so it's irrelevant what I reply to that.

Then there's mother NTF and her tried and trusted method. The 'Number 6 method'! And it's a simple as it sounds. She always backs number 6! I'm not sure if she's crunched the stats for that but she swears by it! Her back up selections will compromise any horse with a name in it that can loosely fit into her life! To be fair to her that method struck gold for her in last months Cheltenham Gold Cup! Now I have no idea why she was having a bet in the Gold Cup but 10 minutes before the off she texted me and said "can you put £2 E/W on Irish Cavalier (no.6) and Sizing John (name method) for me". And just like that she nails the winner of the Gold Cup!?

I suspect she will now be eagerly waiting the final decs for the National to see who lands the golden number 6 saddle cloth!  (for the record Don't Push It was number 6 when he landed his National and yes, her money was down! and no, my money was not!!).

As you may have sussed by now I'm just a shade more analytical when it comes to analyzing the major races (!?!) and here are three of the main stats that I demand my National fancies to have passed before getting my money down...

1. Had previously won at least a Class 2 level...

The last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Indeed 10 of the last 12 had won at least at Listed level+.

Showing an ability to win a race at least at C2 level is a MUST for any serious National contender.

2. Ran at least 10 times over fences but no more than 24 times...

Those that had 0-9 chase starts are 0/85, 5 places (in the last 12 renewals)

Those that had 25+ previous chase starts are 0/50, 1 place (in the last 12 renewals) 

​​​​​​​You need to have had adequate experience over fences before tackling this demanding challenge but equally you don't want to have been to the well so many times that you've nothing left for the final gut-busting thrust round the elbow...