Cheltenham Preview : Days 1 & 2 - Current thoughts...

Published: Thu, 03/09/17

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Good afternoon festival fans

I'm now deep into Festival analysis, all my trends and stats are up to date, full members have two trends/stats reports to tuck into and behind the scenes I'm painstakingly applying the trends (race trends AND Dosage trends) to the likely runners for all the major races. I'm looking for any holes in the main players whilst all the time keeping my analytical eye open for an outsider that my figures suggest has a much better chance than the market currently indicates.

I'm not actually much of an ante-post punter these days, it doesn't really fit my modus-operandi, however, I did spot something lurking at double figures in the Gold Cup last month (prior to the Thistlecrack scratching) that I highlighted to members and took a slice of myself, and there is also one floating around the 20-1+ mark in the Brown Advisory Plate (Handicap Chase on Thursday) that is also catching my eye, I plan to have those thoughts out to full NTF members at some stage today as well.

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As already mentioned I'm fully engrossed in all things Cheltenham so here are some of my loose thoughts for Day 1 & Day 2 of the 2017 Festival, with a stat for each race thrown into the mixer for you, to help you 'Narrow The Field'... 

Day 1

Supreme...

12 of the last 12 winners started at SP 5/2 or less on their last run...

It's been all about MELON for this since he ripped his field apart on hurdles debut at Leopardstown. There has been plenty of hype and he could be anything. He could also be nothing...

My go to response, however, is to take on the hype. My figures also suggest Melon should be taken on. He may end up winning comfortably, he may prove to be another in the conveyor belt of Mullins Supreme champions, he may prove my figures to be wide of the mark. So be it. I'll still be taking MELON on...

Arkle...

11 of the last 12 winners had previously won at G1 or G2 level...

Is there any parallel universe out there that has ALTIOR getting beat in this?!  Let's face it, he looks like a Sprinter Sacre or a Simonsig or an Un De Sceaux or a Douvan Arkle beast; i.e. he aint getting beat! It's hard to know exactly who else lines up against him here so looking for value elsewhere in the race is no easy task as it currently stands. Hopefully my figures do, however, pinpoint some each-way value lurking further down the market...

Ultima Handicap Chase...

12 of the last 12 winners won from an OR of 129-148...

I like this race. It generally works out well on my figures and it's one I love getting stuck into. There are still plenty entered in the race so profiling it is a bit tricky at present although I'll certainly be looking for one running off an OR of 148 or below and above OR 128. That would knock out the current top 11 entered in the race (as well as the bottom 3). Jonjo O'Neill (3 winners, 2 placed from 15 runners) and David Pipe (2 winners, 3 placed from 15 runners) have both targeted this race in recent seasons and their runners certainly demand plenty of respect. Another Hero (JJ O'Neill) looks like one who could be high on my list for this contest although I've plenty work still to do on the race...

Champion Hurdle...

11 of the last 12 winners were rated 159+ coming into this...

I'll be honest this race has had me going back and forth for some time now! It doesn't look as deep as some of the recent renewals of this race, it's currently, I think it's fair to say, lacking a real superstar, but that doesn't mean a superstar doesn't emerge out of it... but just who the hell is that going to be!?

I'd like to find a Sublimity type character lurking further down the market but I'm just not sure that's a serious option this year. The head of the market may not be 'superstars' (yet) but they are damn fine horses and the winner surely comes from there...

Mares Hurdle...

8 of the 9 winners WON last time out...

Don't touch it, never have. Mullins domination, and in particular Quevega's domination, makes this a difficult race to analyse. For me it's a good race to take a breather although no doubt this years race looks a right belter!

National Hunt Chase...

12 of the last 12 winners had 3-11 previous Chase starts...

I have covered this race in previous NTF services, however, the trends have started to wobble a bit in recent years and I decided to drop it from the service last year. I may send out analysis to the free list so that I can keep it on the radar, however, it's not a race I want to get deeply involved in.

Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase...

12 of the last 12 winners had their last start between 16-60 days previous...

Another reason for dropping the NH Chase from analysis was because I wanted to pull this race into the schedule. I had been keeping a close eye on it over the past couple of seasons and the stats do look exceeding strong, certainly strong enough for me to pull into into the schedule. There are 53 horses still entered in this race at the 5 day stage so I probably won't look into it properly until final decs are through, however, POTTERS LEGEND (L Wadham) is currently catching my eye and he may well tick all the boxes I want ticking for this race. He was unlucky last time out on trials day and is able to run off the same mark here...
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Day 2

Neptune...

11 of the last 12 winners were Irish or French bred...

Providing the main protagonists turn up for this, this really could be one of the races of the week! A shoot-out between NEON WOLF & FINIANS OSCAR would be fascinating and both look like stars of the present AND the future for their respective yards. Current third fav BACARDYS ​​​​​​​shouldn't be ignored either and he adds further spice to what looks a fascinating contest...

RSA Chase...

11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo...

MIGHT BITE is a deserved favourite for this but he's a tad short at 5/2 in places. Admittedly there is now some 7/2 floating about and that's tempting, to a certain degree, however, the above age stat (he is an 8yo) does instantly make me want to look elsewhere. Coney Island had been appearing high on my radar until he was pulled from the race the other day, which was disappointing, whilst at larger prices A GENIE IN A BOTTLE is one of a few I'm currently juggling with...

Coral Cup...

11 of the last 12 winners had 0 or 1 previous Handicap Hurdle win...

Impossible to figure out at present but it's been a solid race for my figures over time and the trends (Dosage & Race trends) do an excellent job of whittling down the field. A race I actually enjoy getting stuck into, once the final decs are through. Prior to that it can be a real nightmare though and at the time of writing there are still 130 entries...

QMCC...

11 of the last 12 winners had previously won at G1 level...

Can anything on the planet let alone in this race stop the mighty DOUVAN?! He'll be a prime fit on my figures and it's probably just a case of if he stands up he wins. There are, however, a couple in the line-up that look worth playing from an each-way/without favourite perspective, and that, realistically, is the only way into the race for most of us...

X-Country Chase...

10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts...

I'm actually really disappointed this now isn't a Handicap Chase. Wrong move in my opinion and a race that I may struggle to get a solid grip on (it doesn't appear on the members schedule anyway). I do have a set of trends that I'll tentatively apply to the race although due to the change in race conditions it's far from guaranteed they will play out as expected/hoped. If I am to play in this race I want something with some X-Country Chase experience already under their belt...

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle...

11 of the last 12 winners won from an OR of 124 - 133...

Not a race I cover yet and not one I'm all that keen on getting involved in. Another race that I'll potentially cover for the free list though as I have pulled together some tasty looking trends to go to war with and the beauty of this race is if you get it right you are generally handsomely rewarded...

Champion Bumper...

12 of the last 12 winners won last time out...

Again not a race I cover. Always worth digging into after the race is done and dusted though as it is generally a decent source of future winners.

I have pulled together some cursory starts for the race and I'm going to take a dig into the Dosage side of things as well to see if that helps tighten things up any, although it's all time dependent on this race, for me it's generally not a betting heat and I'll only cover it should the free time become available naturally.


Phew!

A bit of lunch now and then back to the grindstone.

I'll drop you my Thursday and Friday thoughts in the next couple of days but if you want more (and deeper) thoughts prior to that you know where to get them...




Ben (NTF)







































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