Cheltenham Preview : Days 3 & 4 - Current thoughts...

Published: Fri, 03/10/17

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Good afternoon festival fans

We creep ever closer to that almighty first race roar...

Yes we are now just FOUR days away from the 2017 Cheltenham Festival and my behind the scenes research has reached hyper-speed! My trends and stats are now firmly tied down and it's a case of looking for those all important 'box-tickers' and then looking even deeper to see which of that lot have the all important prime conditions to allow them to perform to their optimum.

I came across an interesting 25-1 shot for the Plate Handicap yesterday and although he's far from guaranteed to run in the race (he does hold other entries) I was happy to take a slice of him Non-Runner-No-Bet, in the hope the trainer makes what I think is the correct call for the horse. 

If you're looking to be part of NTF for the 2017 Cheltenham Festival (and see exactly who that 25-1 poke is and exactly WHY I fancy them to get the job done) then doors are currently open.

You can sign-up on the link below...
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Following on from my earlier Day 1 & 2 preview here are my current thoughts for Day 3 & Day 4 of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival... 

Day 3

JLT Novices' Chase...

All six winners were aged 6yo or 7yo...

There have only been six renewals of the race but already there are some super-strong race trends emerging and some remarkably strong Dosage trends appearing. YORKHILL ​​​​​​​has been all the rage for this race for some time and even a sketchy piece of schooling work the other day doesn't seem to have put people off. He's clearly an extremely exciting prospect and I'm actually a fan of the horse but I can't see me backing him at his current odds, I also think he'll miss my trends shortlist as well. The three behind him in the market - TOP NOTCH, DISKO & POLITOLOGUE - are all serious prospects and at the moment I'm every so slightly angling towards the Irish raider Disko...

Pertempts Final...

12 of the last 12 winners were GB or IRE bred...

A race I'll not look at closely until much closer to the time. It is, however, another ultra strong race on the Dosage front and unsurprisingly you are really looking for one with a rather hefty splash of stamina in their pedigree, again highlighting that the 3m+ races at the festival really do take quite some getting. 

My initial digging suggests that SUTTON MANOR (G Elliott) is likely to feature high on my shortlist and if he makes the final decs I'd been keen to have him as part of my final portfolio for the race...

Ryanair Chase...

8 of the last 9 winners were rated 161+...

A race I love getting stuck into and another that works out well on both the race trends and the dosage trends. This is often a race that cuts up quite badly come the final decs stage although I expect the current top three in the betting - UN DE SCEAUX, EMPIRE OF DIRT & UXIZANDRE - to all take their place in the race. I would have loved SIZING JOHN to take in this race but they seem hell bent on going the Gold Cup route. 

I'll be looking to frame a case for one at a bigger price in this although I suspect the best method is to wait to see exactly who turns up at final decs...

Stayers Hurdle...

12 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (10 of 12 won last time out)...

It's all about UKNOWWHATIMEANHARRY here. Can he cement his place as the best staying hurdler around? The horse should be a solid fit on my figures so I suspect it may be a case of looking for each-way value against him but as he is floating around the evens mark for this there is plenty of that each-way value/without the fav value on offer. There are a couple that catch my eye at present at double figure prices, the untapped potential of SNOW FALCON is certainly high on my radar, buttons had yet to be pressed on that one when he tipped up 3 out in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury earlier in the season...


Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase...

12 of the last 12 winners were rated 128-145...

Likely to be a fair number of this field that have been plotted up for this contest for a few months and it's never the easiest to figure out. Also another race that is sure to cut up plenty, with a number holding multiple festival entries. DIAMOND KING (G Elliott) heads the market at 6-1 but as he'll be racing off a mark of 150 I simply have to oppose him, for all I fully appreciate he's coming here very much unexposed over fences.

Venetia Williams and David Pipe have a fine recent record in this with three wins each and their runners demand plenty respect whilst champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a worrying 0/20, 2 places recent record. 

I'm looking forward to tucking into this once the field starts to thin out a bit...

Mares' Novices' Hurdle...

Not a trends race yet...

Pass. Might have a cup of tea at this point. Even a power nap! A cup of coffee and then a 20 minute power nap actually. Try it. Works a treat, promise!

Mares races are never high on my agenda at the best of times so a mares novices' race really doesn't tickle my fancy at all...

Kim Muir Chase...

11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7yo - 9yo...

A race I cover for the service but not one I currently hold any opinion on. Fully let my figures lead me here but even then I won't get overly involved in it. If BALLY LONGFORD gets a run I'll quite possibly be tempted by him...

Grab your NTF Cheltenham slot today!
 
Day 4

Triumph...

12 of the last 12 winners had their last start between 16 & 60 days previous...

No real strong opinion on this one at present although it easy enough to see why the unbeaten DEFI DU SEUIL currently heads the market, he's done precious little wrong to date and already has a C&D victory on his CV. There's actually been some money for another of the McManus runners in recent days with the Joseph O'Brien trained LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY seemingly attracting some support at double figures. I could definitely see that one improving for a return to better ground I'd I expect him to form part of my shortlist for the race...

County Hurdle...

12 of the last 12 winners were rated 128-139...

Another one of those races I won't really have a look at/opinion on until much closer to the day. It offers up plenty strong race trends and dosage trends to get stuck into so although it is a mammoth task to analyse it is one I enjoy, the rating's band of the winners mentioned above certainly helps whittle the field down. These races always offer up plenty in the way of value and that is never a bad thing...

Albert Bartlett...

12 of the last 12 winners had previously run at G1 or G2 level...

When it comes to Dosage races this one is right up there with the best of them. The trends on that score are extremely strong and along with the race trends do a fabulous job of whittling down the field to a workable shortlist. DEATH DUTY is a strong favourite for this but I have to say his Dosage figures don't look ideal for this contest and that gives me a way in to take him on. Third fav WHOLESTONE has a fair old engine under his bonnet and is bogged down with stamina influences in his pedigree although I have to admit his jumping does cause for plenty of concern whilst WEST APPROACH, who also holds plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree, just doesn't win enough for my liking...

Cheltenham Gold Cup...

12 of the last 12 winners were aged 6yo-9yo AND had previously won at Grade 1 level...

We may have lost the Thistlecrack spectacle but boy it's still a fascinating race we have in prospect! It's currently 7-2 the field and the Colin Tizzard pairing of NATIVE RIVER & CUE CARD share favoritism but, for various reasons, I won't be backing either of that two, I just have a few negatives floating around against them, Cue Card more than Native River, and I'll be looking elsewhere for my Gold Cup punts.  I already nailed my colours to the mast of an Irish raider in a piece of ante-post analysis for full NTF members back in January and I'm happy with that position, even more so since Thistlecrack was declared a N/R. The Dosage and Race Trends have always been strong for this race and I'll be relying on them to help me find another bet to back up my ante-post position... 

Foxhunters Chase...

11 of the last 12 winners had previously won over 3m+...

No thanks. Is Pendleton riding again this year?!

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle...

All 8 winners were aged 5yo or 6yo...

Not a race I cover yet or have a great deal of interest in from a personal betting perspective. It is well worth watching to pick up future pointers from though as plenty of decent animals have landed the spoils (Sir Des Champs, Salubrious, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic...).

One of those races that I may start digging into the trends for, time depending of course... 

Grand Annual Handicap Chase...

12 of the last 12 were rated 129-147...

And then it's almost over for another year!  77 still entered here at time of writing so that makes it tricky to properly analyse but a quick scout of my Trends puts the Kerry Lee trained GINO TRAIL near the top of my list. I can't imagine he will be up there on his own though so financially it's not a race I'm willing to get involved in just yet.

My preference here is to look for one running from OR 147 or less aged 6-10 and that had no more than 8 previous Handicap Chase starts...


Phew!

As always I reckon we'll all need a bit of a break once that week is done and dusted!!

Today I make a small detour to analyse two races for Sandown tomorrow (for full NTF members) before cracking straight back into the Cheltenham stuff!

There is simply no rest at this time of the year, the NTF hounds even have to walk themselves at this stage of the season!!

I look forward to seeing you in the NTF Members area as I delve deep into around 20 races using my tried and tested NTF Race Trends and Dosage Trends...




Ben (NTF)


































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