The decs for day one of the Cheltenham Open meeting have just been released, along with
the final field for the centrepiece of the three day meeting the BetVictor Gold Cup.
19 runners are set to go to war over the 2m4f trip in the big one and I'm just about to dig deep into the race using my trusted Dosage & Trends analysis.
And that brings me to the first of the three trends I want to share with you today, to help you with your own analysis over the three days...
13 of the last 15 winners of the BetVictor Gold Cup were aged 6, 7 or
8 (Horses aged 9yo+ are 1/61 in the same period)
It's no real surprise that the younger, more progressive types take this early season handicap but nevertheless it's always good to have that backed up by hard stats. The 1/61 stat against the 9yo+ runners is particularly damming and it's worth noting that seven of the final
19 do fall into that 'older horse' category.
Stats should only be used as a guide to help you make an informed decision and they can, at any given moment, make you look like a right mug, but it's makes perfect sense that you want to be concentrating on one who is ahead of the handicapper for this contest and that usually signifies a
younger beast, something that is well worth bearing in mind when looking at the big race.
I pulled this stat from the 16 Trends that I use to help me pinpoint the winner of the big race, information that NTF members will have full access to on Friday evening.
If you join in for the NTF trial period I'm currently running you will also be able to gain access to the full
race guide.
The trial period was restricted to 50 places and the 50th place was actually taken a few minutes ago. Similar to last season, however, I'm going to open up ANOTHER 20 SLOTS today.
The admin side of things went smoothly (which is the reason I limited places, to keep the admin side of things to a manageable load for myself) so I'm happy to extent the places just a
little...
I will be shutting the doors either tonight or when that addition 20 slots have all gone.
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What you will get during the trail period...
- Six in-depth race analysis guides for the three day Cheltenham BetVictor Open
meeting...
Fri: Class 2 BetVictor Hcp Chase
Sat: G3 BetVictor Hcp Chase - BetVictor Gold Cup
Sun: Sharp Novices' Hurdle - Arkle Trial Chase - Greatwood Hurdle
- Exclusive access to the NTF Mini-Angles for the Open Meeting, angles fully explained and qualifiers highlighted each day
- Exhaustive weekend notes looking back at the weekends racing just past [Posted in the members area on Monday 14th of November, I suspect it will run to 10+ pages of notes]
- Access to the NTF Members Trend
Horses (Currently 100+ Trend Horses) including my full in-depth thoughts on any that run during the trial week
- A chance to discuss racing with the knowledgeable NTF Members [and myself, of course]
- Ability to look back at the members post that have already been so far this season [race analysis guides, weekend notes, e.t.c...]
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Now for those other trends I promised you...
*These stats look at the meeting overall
Horses returning within 14 days of their last start have a poor record at the Open Meeting.
In the last 5 seasons runners that are coming
off a break of 14 days or less have returned the following figures...
2/122 | 1.5% S/R | -£116.28 BFLSP - Win & Place 19/122 | 14%
S/R
75% below expectation
A run within the past 14 days has not been a positive in recent renewals of this three day meeting and you would want plenty other positives on your side before siding with one of these types.
It's not been a meeting where you are liable to pick up a juicy priced winner (33/1+).
In the
past 5 seasons runners that have started with an SP of 33/1+ have returned the following figures...
1/240 | 0.5% S/R | -£188.27 BFLSP - Win & Place 11/240 | 4.5%
S/R
64% below expectation
I'm generally not someone who is driven by price, however, sometimes there are stand-out stats on that side of things and it's worth taking note of them.
Indeed lets stretch this one back another 5 years and look at horses that started at 33/1+ at the last 10 Cheltenham Open meetings...
2/504 | 0.5% S/R | -£383.97 BFLSP - Win & Place 32/504 | 6% S/R
65% below
expectation
Just one other 33/1+ winner when we stretch it back another 5 seasons!
We all love a massive winner but, unfortunately, history tells us the Cheltenham Open meeting isn't the place to be looking for them.
As I already mentioned stats should only be used as a guide to help you make an
informed decision and they can, at any given moment, leave you with a big stinking egg on your face, but the three stats mentioned in this email have proven to be robust pointers in recent renewals of the Cheltenham Open meeting and they are well worth keeping in mind for this year's three day extravaganza.
Remember I'm covering the meeting in-depth on my full NTF service and there are only 20 additional
slots available for the trial week, so if you want to secure your place it's best you act now...
Best of luck with your punting over the next few days...
Ben
(NTF)
