How NTF flattened the 2016 Punchestown Festival by utilising Mini-Angles...

Published: Thu, 10/13/16

Dosage & Trends Analysis | Trend Horses | Exhaustive Weekend Notes | Festival Mini-Angles | Ante-Post Analysis 
Punchestown at the end of the season can be a damn tricky place to find profits.

It's taken me a good few years to make it a happy hunting ground for NTF members and I. There had been a good two or three seasons where we were left scratching our heads in bewilderment. 

"should have stopped after Sandown"

"this Irish end of season stuff is too hard"

"how the hell did that thing win!?"

Comments said by myself and the NTF massive alike, numerous times, often with a few curse words splattered in between!

But I don't like to be defeated. I knew the races should have been working better for my approach and I was confident I just needed a little tweak here and there and I could make the Punchestown Festival something to look forward to instead of fear.

And then it clicked into place.

Two seasons ago it was just straight up NTF race analysis guides that did the business to land the profits. 

(Most of you know how the guides work but if you don't you can get examples HERE.)

Last season, however, it wasn't just the race guides that pulled in Punchestown Festival profits. Last season we also had the 'NTF Mini-Angles' to boost profits and boy did they do just that!

I have toyed with mini-angles at various stages on NTF, primarily on the free Blog but also in stat attack guides that went to full members. I had also been a hardened follower of that type of analysis in my own personal betting. It took a few years to fully get to grips with and I had gone down many a blind alley (and then continued down the alley even when it was clear it was just going to lead to more trouble!) in search of the best way to utilise the approach. The hard knocks from the blind alley walking did, however, bear fruit eventually and after a number of years profiting from (and tweaking) the approach I decided to start implementing it in the full NTF members area at the back end of last season.

There was some moderate success with the mini-angles approach at the Cheltenham Festival, enough to warrant closer inspection for the next major festival at Aintree... but then that pesky Mr Mullins decided to change his approach for Aintree's (he was desperately trying to steal that trainers championship) and he blew a few holes in the approach and left it a bit tattered at the edges.

​​​​​​​Not one to be deterred though as I was confident that wasn't a normal Aintree Festival, Mullins had significantly ramped up his approach to try and knock Nicholls off his perch, and I marched on ahead with my plans to further crack Punchestown. I wasn't just content with the race guides having finally mastered the meeting. I just knew the meeting was ripe for Mini-Trends analysis and I had the three mini-angles that I was sure would bring in juicy profits...

One was based on Willie Mullins and his handicappers.

One revolved around Enda Bolger and one of his regular pilots.

And the other looked at Jessie Harrington and a certain sub-set of her non-handicappers. 

In a strange quirk of fate there were no qualifiers for the Mullins angle last season (yes, he was beginning to annoy me by this stage!!) but the other two did there jobs in fine fashion...

Bolger mini-angle 2016: 2 from 2 +£2.33 BFLSP

Harrington mini-angle 2016: 2 from 10 +£26.02 BFLsp

Harrington also fired in 3 placed runners from her 10 qualifiers.

I was delighted with the +£28.35 BFLSP (4 winners from 12 qualifiers) and it fully justified my decision to implement the mini-angles on the full service.

However it was actually someway better than that for a number of NTF members.

One of the Harrington winners - Don't Touch It - was available at upwards of 33-1 for a lot of the day leading up to the race!

Based on comments in the members area plenty were on at those inflated prices...

Used your mini angles and top in the selections to have a go at Betfred last night with Wish Ye Didn’t (11/8), Don’t Touch It (33-1 !!) and Gods Own (10-1). Just cheered Gods Own home to land a fantastic patent!

Dom

Boy did I get a surprise, backed them both got 6/4 and 33/1 singles and double. Didn’t know they had won till I logged in to your website,as hadn’t watched the racing.Then checked my account, looking healthy.

Ian

Now one successful meeting with the mini-angles doesn't conclusively prove they are gold-dust and the answer to all punting conundrums, far from it. But I had already been using the approach in my private betting and I had road-tested (for use of a better word) similar angles at varying points on NTF. Indeed the 90+ day trainer guides that most of you will have downloaded over the years are in essence a form of mini-angles. 

The fact the mini-angles not only survived but indeed flourished in one of the harshest environments known to National Hunt fans (the Punchestown Festival) was proof enough to NTF members that this was an angle that NEEDED to be included for the 2016/17 version of the NTF subscription service. 

And included it will be.

​​​​​​​It will still be used sparingly, and only where I feel there are strong enough angles to go to war with, but I gave the approach another couple of airings on my flat service this summer (Badly Drawn Horse) and it again stood up well to some damn tricky meetings, and personally I'm really looking forward to the Mini-Angles adding some juicy profits to the bottom line during the 2016/17 National Hunt season.

Indeed I've got a number of them plugged into my Proform software already and there's one I'm really looking forward to unleashing again for Cheltenham 2017...

David Pipe - Cheltenham Festival - Age 6+ - DSLR 38+ - Didn't win last time out - ran over further than 2m1f last time out

Since 2010 that's had 9 winners from 39 runners for a 23% S/R and +£86.72 level stakes profit!

There will be plenty more angles like that throughout the 2016/17 season as I fully implement the mini-angles into the service.

I look forward to seeing many of you joining in the NTF mini-angle madness in the NTF Members Area...
 
What NTF Subscribers have to say about the service...

Today is a perfect example of why I use your service. My two against the field were Zarib and Affair dhonneur (arguably unlucky) which didn’t figure in your shortlist. In this scenario I downgrade my stakes on those two and added 2 from your selections to my portfolio which had caught my eye but not quite made it to my shortlist. Thankfully one was Agrapart and resulted in a nice 25/1 winner (BSP) that I otherwise wouldn’t have backed and probably kicked myself for not doing so. Well done and thanks Ben

Gary

"My first ever comment but I have to give you a great big thank-you… I was late leaving to go the pub for Sunday lunch, didn't have time to study and liked all three selections, so I did a simple treble on the nose and got 164/1!! Oh my… sign me up for a lifetime membership! "

Don B

I am delighted to have signed up for another season with the NTF service.
Thanks for all your wonderful posts and your incredible hard work!

Michael M