I wanted to look further than just simply running at the Cheltenham Festival though. Wary of the Mullins angle yesterday (his poor record at Aintree Grand National meeting) I also wanted to check the
record of those horses that WON at Cheltenham and then came on to run at Aintree.
Here's what my digging returned...
18/56 | 32% S/R | +£32.33 BFLSP
Win & Place 34/56 | 61% S/R
Or in other words 14% of Aintree winners WON at the Cheltenham Festival. Backing them all gave you a tasty strike-rate and a healthy little profit.
That's where the Mullins
stats maybe get a bit muddied. He seems to be planning on sending a number of his Cheltenham winners to Aintree and we now know that Cheltenham winners have a solid record when looking to follow up at Aintree (they actually strike 33% better than expected).
Hmmm... be interesting to see how that plays
out...
Back to those Cheltenham winners though...
I took a closer look at the Cheltenham winners stats at Aintree and
discovered the following two sub-angles...
Cheltenham winners at Aintree in Non-Handicaps
16/39 | 41% S/R | +£12.63 BFLSP
Win & Place 27/39 | 69% S/R
Cheltenham winners at Aintree over Hurdles
12/28 | 43% S/R | +£35.97
BFLSP
Win & Place 20/28 | 71% S/R
Both interesting little sub-plots for those
that like to dig a bit deeper.
Combining the two improves the strike-rates but does admittedly slacken up the LSP figure somewhat...
Chelt winners at Aintree in Non-Hcp Hurdles
10/21 | 48% S/R | +£6.28 BFLSP
Win & Place 16/21 | 76% S/R