Cheltenham Preview : Days 3 & 4 - Current thoughts...

Published: Fri, 03/11/16

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Good afternoon racing fans

We creep ever closer to that almighty first race roar...

Yes we are now just FOUR days away from the 2016 Cheltenham Festival and my behind the scenes research has reached hyper-speed! My trends and stats are now firmly tied down and it's a case of looking for those all important 'box-tickers' and then looking even deeper to see which of that lot have the all important prime conditions.

I came across a lovely 33-1 shot for the Grand Annual yesterday and judging by the overnight markets the NTF massive have snapped up most of that value, as only two bookies currently hold the 33-1 odds!  

If you're looking to be part of NTF for the 2016 Cheltenham Festival (and see exactly who that 33-1 poke is and exactly WHY I fancy them to get the job done) then doors are currently open.

You can sign-up on the link below...
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Following on from my earlier Day 1 & 2 preview here are my current thoughts for Day 3 & Day 4 of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival... 

Day 3

JLT Novices' Chase...

I'll be covering this race for the first time this year and I have to admit I'm really looking forward to getting stuck into it. There have only been five renewals of the race but already there are some super-strong race trends emerging and some remarkably strong Dosage trends appearing, the last four winners appearing within a very small band of figures. BRISTOL DE MAI currently heads the market and whilst I am a fan of his I won't be against taking him on if my figures suggest there is reason to. I'm sure he will make my shortlist but I'm not as sure he will be at the top of the pile...

Pertempts Final...

A race I'll not look at until much closer to the time. It is, however, another ultra strong race on the Dosage front and unsurprisingly you are really looking for one with a rather hefty splash of stamina in their pedigree, again highlighting that the 3m+ races at the festival really do take quite some getting. 

Ryanair Chase...

A race I love getting stuck into and another that works out well on both the race trends and the dosage trends. This very much looks like a race that could cut up badly and there must be a very real chance that four of the current first five in the betting end up taking in alternative targets. That could potentially leave AL FEROF as the favourite and I would be keen to take him on. He's an 11yo. 11yo's and older are 0/138 in Non-Handicap races at the Festival since 2006. Horses aged 11+ are 0/12, 1 place in this race. He is 1 from 9 in G1 chases, the win coming by a neck in his Novice Chase days. I simply can't have him for this. I've already put one up at 12-1 for this and hopefully my figures will point to a couple of other loftily priced runners once the final field is known.

Ryanair World Hurdle...

It's all about THISTLECRACK here. Can he cement his place as the best staying hurdler around whilst at the same time providing Tom Scudamore with his first EVER festival winner over hurdles? The horse is a prime fit on my figures so I suspect it may be a case of looking for each-way value against him but as he is floating around the evens mark for this there is plenty of that each-way value/without the fav value on offer. There are a couple that catch my eye at present at double figure prices...


Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase...

Likely to be a fair number of this field that have been plotted up for this contest for a few months and it's never the easiest to figure out. JOHNS SPIRIT currently heads the market and is being well-touted in places and although I've spoken about him numerous times this season on the free NTF Blog I don't actually fancy him for this and he isn't likely to feature high on my figures either. I want a 6-10yo who is racing from OR 140 or less for this and there are a couple who are on my radar at present, although, like plenty, they do hold multiple entries.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle...

Pass. Might have a cup of tea at this point. Even a power nap! A cup of coffee and then a 20 minute power nap actually. Try it. Works a treat, promise...

Kim Muir Chase...

A race I cover for the service but not one I currently hold any opinion on. Fully let my figures lead me here but even then I won't get overly involved in it...

Grab your NTF Cheltenham slot today!
 
Day 4

Triumph...

I was going through this race yesterday and my word was I struggling to find a real solid contender for it! It does look a relatively open renewal but that's no bad thing as that could allow a pot shot or two at a couple of tastily priced runners...

County Hurdle...

Another one of those races I won't really have a look at/opinion on until much closer to the day. It offers up plenty strong race trends and dosage trends to get stuck into so although it is a mammoth task to analyse it is one I enjoy. These races always offer up plenty in the way of value and that is never a bad thing...

Albert Bartlett...

When it comes to Dosage races this one is right up there with the best of them. The trends on that score are extremely strong and along with the race trends do a fabulous job of whittling down the field to a workable shortlist. BARTERS HILL currently sits top of the market and that's fair enough based on what he's done so far. I can't pick too many holes in him so far but his strength in the market does give plenty of value elsewhere...

Cheltenham Gold Cup...

The big one and boy what a race we have in prospect! It's currently 4-1 the field but it's difficult to see anything out with the top five in the market winning this. It would be unusual for all five of them to under-perform and for me it would be a big shock should the winner come from out with DON COSSACK, CUE CARD, VAUTOUR, DJAKADAM or DON POLI. I already nailed my colours to the mast of one of those five in a piece of ante-post analysis for full NTF members back in January and I'm still of the exact same opinion now. One of the five market leaders scores FULL MARKS on my race trends and I would be very disappointed should he not secure Gold Cup glory next Friday...

Foxhunters Chase...

No thanks.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle...

Not a race I cover yet or have a great deal of interest in from a personal betting perspective. It is well worth watching to pick up future pointers though as plenty of decent animals have landed the spoils (Sir Des Champs, Salubrious, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic...).

Grand Annual Handicap Chase...

And then it's almost over for another year! As already mentioned I've already fired out a 33-1 shot for this race to full NTF Members for a horse I suspect will be bang top of my figure come final analysis. Last year's winner NEXT SENSATION currently heads the market although personally I feel that would be some achievement to win this race back to back. He had a breathing op prior to winning last year and that clearly made a huge difference, since then, however, I think it's fair to say he's shown precious little. My preference here is to look for one running from OR 143 or less aged 7-9 and that finished in the top 3 on 1 of their last 3 starts.


Phew!

As always I reckon we'll all need a bit of a break once that week is done and dusted!!

Today I make a small detour to analyse two races for Sandown tomorrow before cracking straight back into the Cheltenham stuff!

There is simply no rest at this time of the year, the NTF hounds even have to walk themselves at this stage of the season!!

I look forward to seeing you in the NTF Members area as I delve deep into 20 races using my tried and tested NTF Race Trends and Dosage Trends...




Ben (NTF)






























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