Cheltenham Preview : Days 1 & 2 - Current thoughts...

Published: Wed, 03/09/16

Good afternoon racing fans

I'm now deep into Festival analysis, all my trends and stats are up to date, full members have the 28 page NTF stat attack guide to tuck into and behind the scenes I'm painstakingly applying the trends (race trends AND Dosage trends) to the likely runners for all the major races. I'm looking for any holes in the main players whilst all the time keeping my analytical eye open for an outsider that my figures suggest has a much better chance than the market currently indicates.

I'm not actually much of an ante-post punter these days, it doesn't really fit my modus-operandi, however, I have spotted something lurking at double figures in the Ryanair that I'm going to play and I'll have that bit of analysis out to full NTF Members later on today. 

If you're looking to be part of the NTF massive for Cheltenham then doors are currently open and you can sign-up below...
As already mentioned I'm fully engrossed in all things Cheltenham so here are some of my loose thoughts for Day 1 & Day 2 of the 2016 Festival... 

Day 1

Supreme...

It's been all about MIN for months now. There has been plenty of hype and he could be a monster. Could be...

My go to response, however, is to take on the hype. My figures also very much suggest Min should definitely be taken on. He may win by a country mile, he may prove to be even better than Douvan & Vautour, he may prove my figures to be wide of the mark. So be it. I'll still be taking MIN on...

Arkle...

It's all about DOUVAN here and that's fair enough. On my profiles he is a perfect fit. He will be hard to beat. There is no getting away from that. It's hard to figure out exactly who is going to line-up against him so looking for value elsewhere in the race is no easy task as it stands. Hopefully my figures do, however, pinpoint some each-way value lurking further down the market...

Ultima Handicap Chase...

I like this race. It generally works out well on my figures and it's one I love getting stuck into. There are still plenty entered in the race so profiling it is a bit tricky at present although I'll certainly be looking for one running off an OR of 146 or below (all the last 15 winners fit that trend). If you are a long-term NTF reader then I imagine plenty of you will be hoping that FINGAL BAY takes up his entry. My early work suggests he should make my shortlist (based on my NTF profiles).

Champion Hurdle...

On one hand it's a massive loss that FAUGHEEN won't be defending his crown. On the other hand it completely transforms the race from a potential 'no-bet' to an 'OK, time to get stuck in!'. I'm keen to take on ANNIE POWER although I suspect she will sneak onto the bottom of my shortlist. My gut feeling is that this could be ripe for a big-priced winner so hopefully something at double-figures makes my shortlist and I can take a pot-shot at something. I have a very open mind on this race at present.

Mares Hurdle...

Don't touch it, never have. Quevega's domination makes this a difficult race to analyse. For me it's a good race to take a breather.

National Hunt Chase...

I have covered this race in previous NTF services, however, the trends have started to wobble a bit in recent years and I've decided to drop it from the service this year. I may send out analysis to the free list so that I can keep it on the radar, however, it's not a race I want to get deeply involved in.

Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase...

Another reason for dropping the NH Chase from analysis was because I wanted to pull this one into the schedule for the first time. I've been keeping a close eye on it over the past couple of seasons and the stats do look exceeding strong, certainly strong enough for me to pull into into the schedule. I've no strong opinion yet but I'll be looking for a runner that's aged 6 or 7, finished in the top 2 LTO and is carrying 11-07 or less (amongst a plethora of others trends as well). I'm confident this race will hold up well on the profiling front and prove to be a strong addition to the NTF coverage.
 
Day 2

Neptune...

YANWORTH is strong on my figures, however, there is one, on race trends, that is a slightly stronger fit and a couple of others that are right alongside the red-hot fav. There is no way I will be backing him at evens so hopefully plenty will turn up to oppose him. The worst case scenario is that others run scared. I'd like to be able to take him on...

RSA Chase...

A race that has always worked out well on my figures. It's looking like a two horse race on the book at the minute (MORE OF THAT & NO MORE HEROES) but it rarely turns out that way and although I may well end up siding with one of that two I'll definitely be looking to have one at a bigger price running for me. I've got my eye on a couple...

Coral Cup...

Impossible to figure out at present but it's been a solid race for my figures over time and the trends (Dosage & Race Trends) do an excellent job of whittling down the field. A race I actually enjoy getting stuck into.

QMCC...

UN DE SCEAUX's to loose here. He's a prime fit on my figures and it's probably just a case of if he stands up he wins. There are, however, a couple in the line-up that look worth playing from an each-way/without favourite perspective...

X-Country Chase...

I'm actually really disappointed this now isn't a Handicap Chase. Wrong move in my opinion and a race that I'll now struggle to get a solid grip on (it doesn't appear on the members schedule anyway). I'm moderately interested in SIRE COLLONGES although Paul Nicholls recent record at the Festival with his chasers (1/88) does put me off. If I am to play in this race I want something with some X-Country Chase experience already under their belt...

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle...

Not a race I cover yet and not one I'm all that keen on getting involved in. Another race that I'll potentially cover for the free list though.

Champion Bumper...

Again not a race I cover. Always worth digging into after the race is done and dusted though as it is generally a decent source of future winners.


Phew!

A bit of lunch now and then back to the grindstone.

I'll drop you my Thursday and Friday thoughts in the next couple of days but if you want more (and deeper) thoughts prior to that you know where to get them...




Ben (NTF)






























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