As already mentioned I'm fully engrossed in all things Cheltenham so here are some of my loose thoughts for Day 1 & Day 2 of the 2016 Festival...
Day 1
Supreme...
It's been all about MIN for months now. There has been plenty of hype and he could be a monster. Could be...
My go to response, however, is to take on the hype. My figures also very much suggest Min should definitely be taken on. He may win by a country mile, he may prove to be even better than Douvan & Vautour, he may prove my figures to be wide of the mark. So be it. I'll still be taking MIN on...
Arkle...
It's all about DOUVAN here and that's fair enough. On my profiles he is a perfect fit. He will be hard to beat. There is no getting away from that. It's hard to figure out exactly who is going to line-up against him so looking for value elsewhere in the race is no easy task as it stands. Hopefully my figures do, however, pinpoint some
each-way value lurking further down the market...
Ultima Handicap Chase...
I like this race. It generally works out well on my figures and it's one I love getting stuck into. There are still plenty entered in the race so profiling it is a bit tricky at present although I'll
certainly be looking for one running off an OR of 146 or below (all the last 15 winners fit that trend). If you are a long-term NTF reader then I imagine plenty of you will be hoping that FINGAL BAY takes up his entry. My early work suggests he should make my shortlist (based on my NTF profiles).
Champion
Hurdle...
On one hand it's a massive loss that FAUGHEEN won't be defending his crown. On the other hand it completely transforms the race from a potential 'no-bet' to an 'OK, time to get stuck in!'. I'm keen to take on ANNIE POWER although I suspect she will sneak onto the bottom of my shortlist. My gut feeling is that this could be ripe for a
big-priced winner so hopefully something at double-figures makes my shortlist and I can take a pot-shot at something. I have a very open mind on this race at present.
Mares Hurdle...
Don't touch it, never have. Quevega's domination makes this a difficult race to analyse. For me
it's a good race to take a breather.
National Hunt Chase...
I have covered this race in previous NTF services, however, the trends have started to wobble a bit in recent years and I've decided to drop it from the service this year. I may send out analysis to the free list so
that I can keep it on the radar, however, it's not a race I want to get deeply involved in.
Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase...
Another reason for dropping the NH Chase from analysis was because I wanted to pull this one into the schedule for the first time. I've been
keeping a close eye on it over the past couple of seasons and the stats do look exceeding strong, certainly strong enough for me to pull into into the schedule. I've no strong opinion yet but I'll be looking for a runner that's aged 6 or 7, finished in the top 2 LTO and is carrying 11-07 or less (amongst a plethora of others trends as well). I'm confident this race will hold up well on the profiling front and prove to be a strong addition to the NTF
coverage.
