A 25-1 poke for the Fred Winter...

Published: Sun, 03/13/16

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Twas the Sunday before Cheltenham...

So I thought I'd get stuck into a bit of Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle analysis!
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As you do...

This isn't a race that appears on my 20 race schedule for full NTF members but I wanted to start getting it on my radar, with a view to future inclusion on the full service.

In fairness it's probably one of the trickiest races to master over the 4 days, with the last four winners returning at 25/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 40/1.

In fact seven of the 11 winners have gone of at an SP of 14/1 or bigger.

Yeah, it's a bit of a toughie for sure!

I don't mind that though, in fact I relish it, especially when it's a race that is starting to look strong on the trends front.

There are currently 40 horses still entered in the race so to cut that down to a manageable shortlist I used the following three trends...

1  11/11 had an OR of 133 or below (0/45 OR 134+)

2  11/11 ran within the past 37 days (0/90 DSLR 38+)

3  10/11 ran in a non-handicap hurdle last time out

 
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Amazingly that cuts the field down to the following six runners...


OCEANE

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX

ARDAMIR

PILLARD

OUR THOMAS

TOCORORO


To whittle that down further I pulled in my remaining trends...


4   10/11 were FR or IRE bred

5   10/11 3-5 previous hurdle starts

6   10/11 ran to an RPR of no higher than 124 last time out

7    10/11 carried 11-04 or less to victory (1/48 11-05+)

8    9/11 no more than 2 previous hurdle wins


*Obviously we can't really apply trend 7 until final decs but I would expect the weights to go up no more than 4lbs come final decs so the six on the shortlist should get in on an ideal weight.

Both MESSIRE DES OBEAUX & ARDAMIR fall down on one of the trends so I'll tentatively drop them from the shortlist at present.

That then leaves...

OCEANE (A King)

PILLARD (JJ O'Neill)

OUR THOMAS (T Easterby)

TOCORORO (G Elliott)

All four are of a certain level of interest although I have to admit I'm not overly keen on Alan King runners in this race as he is 0/17 to date with his runners in the Fred Winter, albeit he has gone close on a couple of occasions. I'm also a little wary of his hurdle runners at the festival after I uncovered his recent record of 1/73 in festival hurdle contests. In fairness I wouldn't be shocked at all if he improved those figures this year but I want to cut this shortlist down and at this stage I'll tentatively drop OCEANE from my thoughts.

Jonjo O'Neill is another that's yet to score in this race, returning figures of 0/8, 1 place. That's clearly not a terrible set of figures and I'm probably more concerned by Jonjo's recent form; 0/16 last 14 days, 3/43 last 30 days, 4/69 last 60 days, 6/113 last 90 days... with that in mind I'm less keen on PILLARD and he doesn't look an obvious one to kick Jonjo's season into gear.

Which leaves us with two...

TOCORORO & OUR THOMAS

 
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OUR THOMAS from the Tim Easterby yard is the one that interests me the most. Easterby sprung a 33-1 shock in this race two seasons ago with Hawk High and this one has been primed in a similar fashion, ticking along at the northern tracks to protect his mark before being unleashed on the big stage. Brian Hughes will ride this one as well (he also rode Hawk High) and he knows the horse well having ridden him on all four previous starts. 

He has one extremely eye-catching piece of form already on his CV when he ran a close third behind Leoncavallo (J Ferguson) & Sceau Royal (A King) in a Listed contest at Wetherby in October. He would have finished closer that day but for a mistake at the last but it was still a solid effort on only his second hurdle start. If we consider the fact that Sceau Royal is currently 7-1 3rd fav for the Triumph Hurdle and is rated OR 144 then Our Thomas' run behind him a Wetherby suddenly looks all the better (as does his current handicap mark of OR 128). 

With a solid trends profile. a trainer and jockey who know how to win the race and eye-catching form in the book the 25/1 on offer (NRNB) looks well worth a dabble.

TOCORORO of the Gordon Elliott yard also interests me plenty. 

Elliott knows what it takes to win this having landed the 2013 renewal with Flaxen Flare and it's interesting that the filly already has stable jockey Bryan Cooper declared to ride her.

I'm also quite drawn to females in this race as they have actually won four of the 11 renewals from a pool of only 21 runners. That's a fair old strike-rate and I couldn't put anyone off including Tocororo in their calculations. She may want plenty of cut, however, so she won't want the ground to dry out too much. 

It's a damn tricky race to nail the winner in and personally I'd want one running for me at a price that holds plenty of juice.

Hopefully OUR THOMAS (or even TOCORORO) is that horse...

Best of luck if getting involved

Ben (NTF)

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