My unique Dosage & Trends analysis (+ a hefty splash of my own lateral thinking) meant that Sunday the 8th of February 2015 will be a punting day NTF members remember for a very long
time!
The three Grade 1 races on Irish Hennessy Day were covered by myself for the full NTF Service via my own in-depth and unique Race
Analysis guides.
For NTF members it was a day they'll never forget, especially those that rolled the selections into a treble and pulled in upwards of a 150-1 payout!!
*Scroll down the page and you will see a
trio of example guides, 1 of which is that Irish Hennessy Day
Here were the conclusions for each race I posted in the members area...
Deloitte
Hurdle...
Shortlist
NICHOLS CANYON – 13/16 - Winner at 9/2
SUB LIEUTENANT – 12/16
IDENTITY THIEF – 12/16
BLAIR PERRONE – 11/16
Most likely winner
NICHOLS CANYON (W Mullins) – His
un-seat last time out was probably just one of those things and it’s best to put a line through as it was probably nothing more than a novicey mistake on very testing ground. Prior to that he won the G1 Royal Bond in eye-catching fashion and this return to a sounder surface will suit him well.
Moriarty
Chase...
Shortlist
APACHE STRONGHOLD – 12/12 - Winner at 9/2
SHANAHANS TURN – 10/12
Most likely winner
APACHE STRONGHOLD (N Meade) – This 7yo has caught my eye on all 3 starts this term and I’m keen to side with him now he’s back on better ground (form
of 3112112 away from soft & heavy ground). In time I think he will be a stayer but that’s no bad thing as 3 milers have won this contest in previous seasons. It’s also a positive that they’ve given the horse a little break as he is 131411 after a 31+ day break but only 3222 after shorter breaks so he may well be one that benefits from a rest period.
Others on the shortlist...
Shanahans Turn – I think they are making a smart move dropping back
in trip with this one although the fact he has been well beaten in his 3 G1’s is a worry. He isn’t without his chances though.
Hennessy Gold Cup...
Shortlist
LORD WINDERMERE – 15/16
CARLINGFORD LOUGH – 14/16 - Winner at 4/1
FOXROCK –
11/16
Most likely winner
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (J Kiely)- This 2X G1 winner (including a C&D win) will have come on plenty for his Lexus Chase effort last time out (first run of the season) and he is a player in this. He will appreciate the less testing underfoot conditions and this is his chance to put himself bang in the Gold Cup
picture.
Alternative(s)
FOXROCK (T Walsh) – Apart from his blip at Cheltenham last year this 7yo has done precious wrong over fences and deserves his shot in this company after his last two runs in valuable handicaps. He has strong form of 1311 over 3 miles and his Jan & Feb record is an eye-catching 21131. It’s also worth noting that trainer Ted Walsh has a solid 6/23 record at the track (4/12 over
fences) and I would expect this lad to take the step up in class in his stride, I know they rate this one fairly highly in the Emerald Isle.
Others on the shortlist...
Lord Windermere – I have to stick with my guns here and go with my thinking they are gunning for one race; a repeat in the Gold Cup. As such there is a chance he will only be 90-95% fit for this. I’m also not convinced Leopardstown is his ideal track (1/7) and that he is better on
more undulating tracks (form of 1/11 on flat or slightly undulating tracks).
How exactly did I come to those conclusions?
As you will also see the doors to the 2015/16 version of my National Hunt service are now open and as a member of the free NTF list you are in line for a tasty discount.
Doors fully opened last week but you can still sneak
on today for the discounted price of £145 (full price is £157 for the season).
£145 gets you full access to the members area for the 2015/16
National Hunt season, including ALL the major Festivals (Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown...).
If you are not familiar with the full NTF service then there are plenty of examples for you at the following link...
There will be emails going out next week with the link for the full sign-up price but as a member of the free NTF service I don't want you
signing up for that. I promised a discount if you were on the free list and I'm a man of my word so...
I've already had a fantastic pick-up over the last couple of days from previous NTF members and I will be looking to close doors by the 25th of October so I can concentrate 100% on delivering the high-quality guides my members have become used to over the past six seasons.
This week brings the first Cheltenham meeting of the season (Friday & Saturday), quickly followed by the Old Roan Chase day at Aintree on the Sunday.
I'll have a stat attack guide for members for the two day Cheltenham meeting as well as covering one of the races using the Trends & Dosage method and I'll also be plunging deep into full analysis mode for the
Old Roan Chase on Sunday.
I can't promise you every weekend will be like the 150-1+ Hennessy Gold Cup day treble but I can promise you I'll be working my ass off trying to deliver similar days like that!!!
I look forward to seeing plenty of you in the NTF Members Area this
season.
Bring on the
jumps!!! It's been too long and I'm chomping at the bit to get stuck into some proper analysis!!!!!
Ben (NTF)
