VIOLET DANCER (G Moore) - 50.8 (BetFair SP) winner of the Betfair Hurdle (Newbury) and member of the NTF Alternative
20 to follow list 2014/15!
That's the standard-bearer this season's Alternative 20 have to live up to.
No pressure then!!
Yes it's that time of the year again. The time when your in-boxes are
swamped with 'to follow' lists after 'to follow' lists...after 'to follow' lists!!
And I'm pitching into the swarm with my own 'Alternative' take on things.
Once again I've taken a slightly different tact to most of the other 'to follow' lists out there and delved a bit deeper into the training
ranks, looking past the obvious trio of Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls.
In fact you won't even find a Pipe, Hobbs, King or O'Neill runner on my list. I'm going deeper that even the second tier of trainers!
Look we all know DON POLI, FAUGHEEN, VAUTOUR and co will win
their fair share of races this term. You don't need me to tell you that and I don't need to insult you by telling you that (I'll leave that up to the mainstream pundits!!).
I'm much more interested in looking for the runners that have skimmed under the radar a touch, the ones that are not talked about on a regular basis and don't already have a high profile win on their
CV.
It's trickier than a standard 'to follow' list and it will have more of a roller-coaster feel to it, buts that's cool, especially if you can pick up a Violet Dancer or two along the way!
Whilst constructing this guide I also managed to source some EXCLUSIVE comments from a
few of the trainers featured, regarding the specific horse of theirs that I had selected for my list...
Here is a sneaky-peek for you...
“xx xx has strengthened up well over the summer. He will be embarking on a novice chase campaign this season and we feel that he will fulfil
his potential when switched to fences. His preference would be for good winter ground.”
But which trainer is that and who exactly is he waxing lyrical about?
Whilst I have your attention I also want to give a little comment on one of the 'Well-Handicapped' horse I mentioned in Monday's post,
CREEPY.
As I'm sure you are aware he ran yesterday at Warwick and finished a well beaten third. Off the back of that run plenty of people seem very quick, and keen, to write him off. Which, if I'm honest, is perfectly fine by me. I'd rather the wider betting public was against a horse I/we were backing.
But let's look at the evidence in the aftermath of yesterdays run...
At the time of writing my post (Monday afternoon/evening) Creepy was set to run on his PERFECT ground - Good ground. By the time the tapes went up at 4.40pm Tuesday the track had absorbed a significant amount of rain. Enough rain to make the ground less
than perfect for Creepy. It had been raining constantly for a hefty number of hours. The form books may well still say that it was Good ground but it was officially Good (Good to Soft in places) and most likely Good to Soft all round (unofficially).
The going/potential for rain was always a concern for me as Good ground is a MUST for Creepy. He didn't get the Good ground. He
ran accordingly.
It must also be factored into things that he was not running on his favoured track type. He is considerably better on an undulating or very undulating track, Warwick is only classed as a slightly undulating track. On flat or slightly undulating tracks he now has form figures of F2PU5433. Now clearly we knew this about Warwick beforehand, obviously, but it
was the only condition negative he was facing, at the time, and with prime underfoot conditions to run on it wasn't hard to let that slide.
Once that deluge of rain fell, however, he suddenly had TWO major conditions against him.
One negative was
passable.
Two negatives and the worry beads started coming out!
Now time may tell that people are correct to write him off after that run, maybe he is 'gone at the game'. Personally I'm more than willing to give him a few more tries, providing of course conditions are suitable for him. He simply
NEEDS that Good ground. I hope he gets it soon...
Happy punting and don't forget to grab your FREE Alternative 20 to follow for the season guide at the following link...
Cheers
Thanks for being a loyal NTF
reader
