The big one is creeping ever closer...
I can tell by the activity on my phone and texts from long lost cousins, friends, neighbours...?!?
In all honesty when it comes to once a year one
race punters (essentially everyone else in my family!!) I generally just text back with the first horse that comes into my head!
When it comes to my own approach to tackling the race, however, I'm obviously just a little bit more thorough than that (just a little!!).
I already provided you with six of the trends I use to narrow down the national field (NTF Blog Post - 24th March)
and here are three more to help you with your analysis...
1 - 14/15 had recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 starts
Some sort of recent form is a huge bonus. Yes a lot of the field will have been smuggled along in recent weeks/months, trying to get to the race under the radar, but 14 of the last 15 winners all managed to find the podium at least once in one of their last 3 starts prior to landing the big one.
2 - 13/15
carried 11-01 or less to victory
Weight is always talked about in the National but rightly so. The figures tell us that it has proven extremely difficult to carry more than 11-01 to victory over the massive fences and the gruelling four and a half mile trek. In fact only three of the last 15
have carried more than 11-00 to victory, two of them had previously placed (or went on to place) in Cheltenham Gold Cups (Neptune Collonges & Hedgehunter). You have to be a damn classy (and tough) horse to lump more than 11 stone to victory in the National. It CAN be done but it is bloody difficult!
3 - 13/15 had no more than 2 career chase
falls or unseats
That makes perfect sense. If you can't jump you generally can't win. Yes the fences are softer now and they probably aren't quite the same test as they used to be but there are still THIRTY of them to jump and if you are prone to errors/non-completions then you are going
to get found out. Two falls/un-seats is my cut-off, any more than that and you get a black mark from myself.
So there you have it, you now have nine of the main trends I use to narrow down the 40 runner Grand National field.
But that's not even half the story. I actually use a full 19 point check-list for the National (not to mention my exclusive Dosage Trends), applying my exhaustively researched trends to each and every runner in the
race.
I'm not looking for an exact fit but I am looking for the best fit(s), those horses with the correct profile for the Grand National challenge.
All members of my full NTF
service receive this unique analysis, either following me in with my own selections or utilising the in-depth analysis for their own benefit and treading their own path off the back of my hard graft.
To get my full 19 point Grand National check-list as well as similar in-depth analysis for 12 other races over the three day
Aintree Grand National Festival...
