Here are the trends I have applied to the Cross-Country Chase entries...
1 10/10 aged between 8 & 12
2 10/10 were yet to win a Chase at Graded level
3 9/10 were rested for at least 29 days
4 9/10
had at least 18 career starts under rules
5 9/10 had previously won at 3m+
6 9/10 had 11+ Chase starts
7 9/10 had their last Chase start in a X-Country event
8 9/10 had previously finished in the top 3 in a X-Country event
9 8/10 top 4 finish LTO
10 8/10 were (IRE) bred
11 8/10 had an OR of 143 or less
12 8/10 were trained in Ireland
13 8/10 had between 1 & 5 chase victories
Applying those trends lead me to....
QUANTITATIVEEASING & ANY CURRENCY
Those two finished first and second over the fences at the track
in December, they have confirmed track form, which is a major plus.
Now whilst the utmost respect has to be paid to Any Currency there is actually a 9lb pull in favour of the runner-up from that day Quantitativeeasing. I'm of the opinion that he was given a bit much to do over the fences in December but he did make eye-catching progress late on
for a decent second and his jockey wasn't all that hard on him once the winner had flown.
It's also worth pointing out the Festival previous of Quantitativeeasing...
5th in the 2010 Coral Cup - 2nd in the 2011 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase - 7th in the 2012 JLT Handicap Chase (off OR 155!) - PU in the 2013 JLT Handicap Chase - 13th in the 2014 X-Country Chase (off OR 146 - he runs off OR 140 this year)
OK the last two bits of that festival form are nothing crazy to shout
about but the others show he more than has the ability to handle the festival environment.
It's also worth pointing out that he finished 2nd in the 2011 Paddy Power Gold Cup and won the 2011 December Gold Cup (both at Cheltenham). He also finished a length 2nd in the 2013 Galway Plate behind Carlingford Lough.
The back-class is there, he handles the festival environment, he loves Cheltenham, he has jumped round the X-Country fences, he's well in on old form, he has a 9lb pull with the favourite from their December meeting and he tops my exclusive NTF Trends for the race.
Like the race or loathe the race (I imagine it's about 50/50!!) it's worth getting stuck into, especially when the profiles pick out something at double figures (Willie
Hill go 10-1 at the time of writing this, a couple others go 9-1).
QUANTITATIVEEASING ticks the NTF boxes for the Cross-Country race on Wednesday and I'm taking a slice of that 10-1!
If you have already jumped on-board NTF for Cheltenham week then I'll speak to you tomorrow when I post the preliminary figures for the five championship races in the NTF members
area.
If you still want to be part of the service for the greatest show on earth then get your ass into gear, I close the doors tomorrow and then it's all systems go for Festival analysis!!
Doors Close on Sunday!!
Ben (NTF)
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