Five reasons to oppose Un De Sceaux in the Arkle on Tuesday...

Published: Fri, 03/06/15

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  1. He's a front-runner. And none of the last 20 Arkle's have gone the way of a front-runner! In fact you need to go back to Young Pokey in 1992 to find the last (kinda) front-running Arkle winner (he didn't fully front-run to victory). The facts remain it is a tricky race to take from the front.
  2. He fell on his chasing debut. And the last horse to do that and then win the Arkle? Yep it was the one and only Moscow Flyer. Indeed of the last 13 Arkle winners only The Flyer failed to complete on ALL chase starts prior to winning at the festival.
  3. Ruby has been struggling over the festival fences. Amazingly Ruby is 0/39 over fences at the last five festivals! Only 3 of them have even placed! A minor blip or something more serious?

 
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4. Mullins is still to break his Arkle duck. 11 runners, 0 winners, 1 placed runner. A race he has had relatively little to shout about during his career, even Champagne Fever's agonizing defeat last term must have smarted just a little!

5.He is Dosage weak. And none of the last 15 Arkle winners have been Dosage weak (less than 8 points in their profile). Sure, it isn't the strongest Dosage race of the week but the past 15 winners have at least had 8 points or more in their profile, UDS doesn't.

Now all that doesn't guarantee that he won't or can't win the Arkle, far from it, if he does win I won't be sitting at NTF HQ saying 'Wow, I didn't see that coming!',  but there are negatives to be found against him and in my opinion it's well worth looking at the alternatives in the race, especially with some of the tasty prices floating about.

I've done plenty of the preliminary work for the race and I know for sure that Un De Sceaux WON'T be coming out top of my figures. Again that doesn't mean he can't or won't win the race but it does give me some solid ammo to go after one or two of the more attractively priced runners in the field.

And that's exactly what I'm looking for. A horse with a more suitable profile for the race than the red-hot odds-on favourite. From a punting perspective an 8/13 shot just doesn't excite me. Never has, never will. I'm not that kind of punter.

If you are looking for an alternative angle into 19 of the major races at next weeks Cheltenham Festival then you need to get yourself over to NTF and into the members area!



Ben (NTF)
































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