Here's what the stats were telling me about horses running at Cheltenham off a break of 15-days or less (since 2011)...
Cheltenham Festival | DSLR 15 or less
6/206 | 3% S/R | -£87.75 LSP - W&P 20/206 | 10% S/R
23% below exp | E/W = -£140.41
...far from encouraging... and the stats dip again when you...
Remove those horses that WON their last race before Cheltenham...
1/137 | <1% S/R | -£111 LSP - W&P 9/137 | 6.5%
S/R
72% below exp | E/W = -£148.90
...I also noted the poor record of...
Horses rated 18lbs or more below top-rated horse (and DSLR 15 or less)...
0/98 | 0% S/R | -£98.00 LSP - W&P 5/98 | 5% S/R
E/W = -£132.50
...another dig into the stats suggest we need to be careful of...
Horses moving up or down in trip
by 1 furlong or more from last run (and DSLR 15 or less)
2/137 | 1.5% S/R | -£92.75 LSP - W&P 13/137 | 9.5% S/R
59% below exp | E/W = -£138.96
... the stats again dip when you...
Remove horses that WON LTO
0/97 | 0% S/R | -£97.00 LSP - W&P 6/97 | 6% S/R
E/W = -£136.15
...which all tellsg us we need to be wary when considering backing something at Cheltenham that has run within 15-days or less of the festival...
...could well be that the recent run significantly damages their chances of festival glory...
How many turn up at Cheltenham this year off a quick run is anyone's guess... but for those that do, I'd be wanting plenty in my favour
before I consider them to be worthy of a bet...
That's all from me today... I'm off for coffee #3 of the day, before burying my head back into more Cheltenham stats...
...as I keep pulling together the vital threads I need for the '2026 NTF Cheltenham & Aintree Festival Service'...
