Now for those Aintree stats...
And today I'm focusing on...
Previous Aintree Festival winners...
Are these types worth backing or should they be avoided?
I'll let the stats do the talking...
Overall record of horses running at the Aintree Grand National Festival that had previously WON at the Aintree Grand National
Festival...
(Since 2008)
43/334 | 13% S/R |
+£190.80 BFLSP - W&P 100/334 | 30% S/R
(3% below exp) | E/W = +£23.67
A solid start... some healthy profits to Betfair SP if backing blind... but, as always, I love to tighten things up... so let's get stuck into a bit of that...
Drop the young and the
old...
6yo-11yo
43/296 | 15% S/R | +£228.80 BFLSP - W&P 92/296 | 31% S/R
(3% above exp) | E/W = +£72.12
Younger than 6yo & older than 11yo
0/38, 1p
————
Concentrate on the top end
races...
Class 1
42/302 | 14% S/R | +£219.74 BFLSP - W&P 96/302 | 32% S/R
(2% above exp) | E/W +£71.71
Class 2
1/32, 3p
————
Concentrate on those that have had at least 3 starts in current
season...
3+ seasonal starts
42/268 | 16% S/R | +£249.33 BFLSP - W&P 85/268 | 32% S/R
(10% above exp) | E/W = +£93.17
2 or less seasonal starts
1/66, 14p
————
And finally...
Drop those that failed to complete Last Time Out (LTO)...
Completed race LTO
42/279 | 15% S/R | +£226.98 BFLSP - W&P 87/279 | 31% S/R
(6% above exp) | E/W = +£84.68
Failed to Complete race LTO
1/55, 12p
----
Pulling it all together gives...
Previously WON at Aintree GN Festival | 6yo-11yo running in a Class 1 race | 3+ starts in current season | Completed race LTO
40/204 | 20% S/R | +£291.46 BFLSP - W&P 71/204 | 35% S/R
(26% above exp) | E/W = +£168.03
Lovely stuff...
Only
ONCE since 2008 was there NOT a winner at Aintree on this angle... and that came in 2021... there was no Aintree Grand National meeting in 2020 due to Covid... which likely explains why the angle didn't produce a winner in 2021...
So I think it is
safe to say that YES, previous Aintree Festival winners ARE worth backing... well... with a bit of filtering anyway...
It's not an angle I would personally
follow blind... but I do have the angle plugged into one of my databases and I will definitely be using it as part of my overall Aintree analysis for this weeks action...
And if you want an even TIGHTER angle within the above angle... then check out the
record of those horses that were...
TOP-RATED (on official ratings) and were running over a trip of <3m2f
20/32 | 63% S/R | +£22.65 BFLSP - W&P 23/32 | 72% S/R
(57% above
exp)
