...Last Time Out Winners (LTOW) at Cheltenham...

I'm still buried deep in the Cheltenham trends and stats, making sure I've poked my head round every corner so that my guides for next week are up to their usual high standards...

And this morning I've been taking a dive into Last Time Out Winners...

There have been 332 races at the last twelve Cheltenham Festivals...

174 of those races were won by a horse that was a Last Time Out Winner (LTOW)...

Meaning...

52% of the races at the last twelve Cheltenham Festivals were won by a LTOW...

You couldn't, however, have made a profit backing every single one of those LTOW's... even at BFSP you would have punched a massive -£196.40 hole in your betting bank...

But... the fact that more than half of the winners were LTOW's, there ARE areas where we CAN profit from them...

Like the following...

WON at Leopardstown or Naas LTO...

Cheltenham Festival Class 1 races over 2m-3m | DSLR 28+ | WON at Leopardstown or Naas LTO

45/198 | 23% S/R | +£194.73 BFLSP

Win & Place - 97/198 | 49% S/R

15% above expectation

WON at Cheltenham LTO...

Cheltenham Festival | IRE or FR bred 5yo - 7yo | WON at Cheltenham LTO

17/46 | 37% S/R | +£77.94 BFLSP

Win & Place - 22/46 | 48% S/R

138% above expectation

Nicky Henderson LTO Winners...

Cheltenham Festival | N Henderson in Grade 1 races | Horses with 4-15 career starts | Same/Down in trip/up no more than 0.5f | WON a NON-Handicap LTO

15/41 | 37% S/R | +£80.65 BFLSP

Win & Place - 26/41 | 63% S/R

53% above expectation

LTO Winners in Novice Chasers...

Cheltenham Festival | Novice Chases | 6yo-7yo NOT wearing a Tongue-Tie | 3+ starts in season | Previously run at track

25/79 | 32% S/R | +£142.74 BFLSP

Win & Place - 40/79 | 51% S/R

62% above expectation

The above four LTOW angles are only a small selection of the ones I have plugged into to help with my analysis for next week...

And, as always, I'm not necessarily looking to follow any of them blindly... the are simply part of my wider analysis methods to help me narrow the fields during the 2025 Cheltenham Festival... 

Analysis you can get your hands on HERE>>>

Cheers and happy punting

Ben (NTF)

p.s. I'll have more great free Cheltenham content for you soon... so keep staying tuned...

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