...Hurdle >>> Chase >>> profit?...

I'll keep this brief as I'm currently DEEP in Cheltenham Festival analysis mode...

Which is analysis you will be able to take full advantage of when you hook up to NTF for Cheltenham Festival week...

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I posted some analysis to NTF members yesterday... taking a deeper dive into one of the angles highlighted in my recent free Cheltenham guide... and uncovered a couple of double-figure pokes to get on in two of the handicap chases... along with a bunch of others for us to keep an eye on over the next few days... 

When I'm pulling together such analysis I'm often heading deep down the trends/stats rabbit hole... something or other will set a spark off and more often than not I need to see if it's rubbish or if it's actually something worth pursuing...

...and I do occasionally stumble upon some 'left-field' type angles... like the one I'm about to share with you...

I actually shared this angle last year... there was only the one qualifier over the 4-days... a 25/1 shot that pulled-up... but that doesn't put me off... it's a 'strange' sort of angle so you don't expect it to be banging in returns all the time...

...and I'm happy to keep it on my wider radar again this year...

Here it is...

Chasers than ran over Hurdles LTO...

Now my initial thoughts, before checking, would be that running in a Cheltenham Festival Chase off the back of a Hurdle run wouldn't be a positive... and, under certain circumstances, I'd be right...

For example... you don't want to be heading to one of the G1 Chases off the back of a Hurdle run.. not many try it, but the ones that have returned... 0/23, 1p...

But there is a 'quirky' angle concerning Chasers coming off a Hurdle run that looks, at the very least, worth keeping an eye on... that angle being as follows...

Cheltenham Festival Chases (G2 or less) | Ran (and COMPLETED) in a Hurdle race LTO | DSLR 75 or less | Previously run at the Cheltenham Festival | SP <33/1

17/91 | 19% S/R | +£79.56 LSP

Win & Place - 41/91 | 45% S/R (E/W returns = +£130.78)

75% above expectation

...which is a LOT healthier than I thought it would be before I started digging... and there are also a handful of 5th & 6th placed finishers in the data-set... which would have seen an E/W pay-out in plenty of books... so you can easy argue that the E/W stats are even better than the bare figures above...

You won't get many qualifiers on the angle each year... but in a bit of 'out of the box' style thinking it is a tidy looking angle... and one I've now got locked and loaded and will be eagerly waiting for any qualifiers being highlighted to me next week...

For now though... it's back to the festival analysis grindstone...

Analysis you can get your hands on by heading HERE>>>

Cheers and happy punting

Ben (NTF)

p.s. I'll have more great free Cheltenham content for you soon... so stay tuned...

>>>Join NTF for the Cheltenham Festival HERE

>>>FREE Cheltenham Guide HERE

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