...Lossiemouth... Fact To File... Gaelic Warrior...

...where do they go... no one knows?!

Well... Willie Mullins might know... or maybe he genuinely hasn't decided yet...

Truth is though, I really don't give a damn... I don't deal in rumours or try and figure out exactly which races Willie Mullins is going to sent individual members of his massive Cheltenham team to...

I prefer to deal in the hard facts...

And the facts are this...

There have been 167 races at the last six Cheltenham Festivals...

Willie Mullins has won 42 of them!

25% of them won by ONE trainer!?

That's nothing short of crazy!!

It gets even more crazy when you look at the 111 Non-Handicap races... as Big Willie has won a whopping 38 of them! 

THIRTY. EIGHT!

34% of the Non-Handicap races have been won by one trainer!

Willie Mullins is simply on a different level!

But we should be used to it by now... those are the extreme levels that Willie Mullins operates at... and has been operating at for some time...

He's not, however, the only trainer worth talking about for next week... and it's another of the Irish trainers I'm concentrating on in this email...

But before I get onto that...

...back to those Cheltenham trainer stats...

Any of you that have followed me for any period of time will know I love digging into trends and stats, and the Cheltenham Festival is a place where you can PROPERLY get stuck in... especially on the trainer front... and especially with the Irish trainers...

They produce such an insane amount of winners that they are the perfect subjects to delve into and uncover profitable angles that we punters can look to... well... profit from!

And the following is what I have uncovered during the deep digging I've been undertaking over the past couple of weeks... as I get thing prepared behind the scenes for my 2025 NTF Cheltenham Festival Service...

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Henry De Bromhead is no stranger to a Cheltenham winner or two... or 23 to precise! 

Indeed if we look at Cheltenham Festivals from 2017 - 2024 we see he third on the list with 20-winners...

Only Willie Mullins (shock horror!) and Gordon Elliott have recorded more winners than De Bromhead in the same period...

The overall stats for De Bromhead read...

20/166 | 12% S/R | +£152.55 BFLSP (20% above expectation)

Win & Place - 48/166 | 29% S/R 

Solid... steady... and just what you'd expect from a man of De Bromhead's talents...

But here's where it gets interesting...

ALL 20 of his winners ran in a GRADED race last time out...

Those that came into the Cheltenham Festival having NOT run in a Graded race LTO returned...

0/51, 10p

...and if you know me, you know I won't stop digging there!

...to start with I removed the year filter and just concentrated on all Cheltenham Festivals that De Bromhead had a runner at... that gives him the total of 23 Cheltenham Festival winners that I mentioned earlier...

How many of them warmed up for Cheltenham by running in a Graded race?

22 of them...

So even extending the period under analysis only produced ONE De Bromhead winner that warmed up outside of Graded company...

For the record that winner was SIZING AUSTRALIA in the 2011 X-Country Chase... and being that it's the X-Country Chase, it doesn't really count anyway!?

That means De Bromhead's overall figures at the Cheltenham Festival with runners that DIDN'T run in a Graded race LTO read...

1/68 | 1.5% S/R | -£50.50 - W&P 12/68 | 18% S/R

78% below expectation

So the figures stack up even when we expand the period under examination...

But let's flip back to the initial time-frame... 2017-2024... as 2017 was when De Bromhead really started to figure out how to produce Cheltenham winners on a regular basis...

Using his runners that ran in a Graded race LTO as my starting point... I uncovered the following Henry De Bromhead Cheltenham Festival angle...

H De Bromhead | Cheltenham Festival | Ran in a GRADED race LTO | DSLR 28-119 | Won or Placed on 1 of last 3 starts | 0-1 starts in calendar year

20/78 | 26% S/R | +£240.55 BFLSP (+£109.03 LSP)

Win & Place - 34/78 | 44% S/R

89% above expectation | E/W returns = +£124.05

Those are some extremely solid figures from De Bromhead and, unsurprisingly, he seems to be plotting a path to the Festival from some way out... if he thinks he has a live player then chances are they are taking in Graded company on their final start before Cheltenham... it likely gives De Bromhead the last piece of the jigsaw he needs so he can fine-tune things before March...

Last year there were four qualifiers on the angle... returning two winners and a close 2nd (of 21)... chipping in +12.78 points profit to the overall total...

The angle hasn't returned profit every year...in 2022 it dropped -0.86 and in 2018 it dropped -1.57... those are, however, nothing but minor blips... I'd be concerned if it was swinging wildly between profit and loss... but it isn't... so I'm not worried...

I have that angle firmly plugged into my database and when a qualifier appears over any of the 4-days next week it will be highlighted in the relevant race analysis guide, and will form part of my overall assessment of a race...

Analysis you can get your hands on by heading HERE>>>

That's not to say I will be ignoring any De Bromhead horses that DON'T fit the above angle... far from it... but I'd probably be wanting some solid pointers from other avenues to make me want to stick my money on a De Bromhead horse that came in NOT fitting the above angle/profile...

Anyway... that's enough from me today... I'm off to continue my deep dive into the 2025 Cheltenham Festival...

There's a hell of a lot to cover and the 4-days are ticking closer by the day...

Cheers

Ben (NTF)

p.s. I'll have more informative (and free) Cheltenham content for you soon... so stay tuned...

>>>Join NTF for the Cheltenham Festival HERE

>>>FREE Cheltenham Guide HERE

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