...and, like the Willie Mullins email I sent out yesterday, I'm concentrating on some Trainer Trends... with a bit of a focus on price (as in Starting Price)...
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The first man under the Royal Ascot microscope is...
👑 ROGER VARIAN
Here are the overall stats for
Varian at the last five Royal Ascot meetings...
10/90 | 11% S/R | -£29.15 LSP - W&P 26/90 | 29% S/R
Ten winners is good going from Varian... but backing all his runners would have sunk a relatively chunky
hole in your pocket...
Things get a bit more interesting when you split his runners by Starting Price (SP) though...
Varian Royal Ascot runners | SP 16/1 or less
10/52, 12p | +£8.85 (+£16.40 BFLSP)
Varian Ascot runners | SP above 16/1
0/38, 4p | -£38.00
ALL ten of his winners started at an SP of 16/1 or less and hardly anything of his that started at BIGGER than 16/1 even managed to place...
I wouldn't say the money is 'talking' when it comes to the Varian Royal Ascot runners... but
that's a pretty solid cut off point and well worth bearing in mind...
I used that 16/1 cut-off to construct an interesting angle for the Varian runners at Royal Ascot...
R
Varian | Royal Ascot G2 races or less | WON 1 of last 3 starts | SP 16/1 or less
10/40 | 25% S/R | +£20.85 LSP (+£28.40 BFLSP) - W&P 20/40 | 50% S/R
The next trainer I want to look at is...
👑 ANDREW BALDING
Here are the overall stats for Balding at the last five Royal Ascot
meetings...
8/128 | 6% S/R | -£55 LSP - W&P 24/129 | 19% S/R
Balding has fired a lot of bullets to get his eight winners... resulting in a 55 point drop if backing them all...
Like Varian, however, things become more interesting when applying a price filter...
Balding Royal Ascot runners | SP 16/1 or less
8/62, 11p | +£12.00 (+£24.15 BFLSP)
Balding Royal Ascot runners | SP above 16/1
0/67, 5p | -£67.00
A similar story... all the Balding winners were found with an SP of 16/1 or less and hardly anything starting above that price even managed to place...
Again, I used the 16/1 cut-off point to construct an angle to keep in mind...
A Balding | Royal Ascot runners | First start at Ascot | 1-2 starts in current season | Won or placed 1 of last 3 starts | SP 16/1 or less
7/23 | 30% S/R | +£46.50 LSP (+£58.03 BFLSP) - W&P 12/23 | 52%
S/R
The third and final trainer I want to highlight here is...
👑 WILLIAM HAGGAS
The
overall stats for Haggas at the last five Royal Ascot's read...
7/69 | 10% S/R | -£21.32 LSP - W&P 22/69 | 32% S/R
A bit more targeted with his runners than the other two, but whilst he still gets a decent amount of winners, the S/R is
low and there is a loss when backing all his runners...
And once again, adding a price filter does tighten things up...
Haggas Royal Ascot runners | SP 9/1 or less
6/41, 10p | -£12.32 (-£9.12 BFLSP)
Haggas Royal Ascot runners | SP above 9/1
1/28, 5p | -£9.00
An even tighter SP window for the majority of the Haggas winners... but we still need to do a bit of filtering to make them a profitable bunch... this is the angle I came up with...
W Haggas | Royal Ascot runners
over 1m-1m4f | DSLR 31+ | Same or up or down no more than 2 class levels from last run | SP 9/1 or less
6/15 | 40% S/R | +£13.68 LSP (+£16.88 BFLSP) - W&P 8/15 | 53% S/R
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What I would say is, that despite there being some strong SP cut-off points for runners from the three trainers above (when it comes to their recent Royal Ascot winners) I'm not going to blanket ignore their runners that start at bigger prices... the above are best used as a guide and as something to factor into the overall picture... something which I do week in and week out on the full NTF members service...
...sure, if one of their runners qualifies on one of the angles highlighted above I'll definitely be giving that horse a serious look, with a view to punting it, but if I have strong reasons to back/consider one of their runners at a bigger price then I'm not necessarily going to ignore that because it doesn't fit into the angle(s) I've uncovered... it's ALWAYS worth being flexible with your approach...
That's all from me today... I'm off to continue my Royal Ascot deep-dive...
