...and it will almost certainly be won by an Irish trained horse...
To be fair I never used to mind digging into
the Cross-Country Chase at the Festival when it was a handicap...
And I will still be 'lightly' covering it this year>>>
In fact I used to cover it here in the free email regularly and I still get the odd email saying 'we was robbed in 2015!'... that being the year my trends singled out QUANTITAVEEASING at decent odds... and he was cruising jumping 3-out... looking like he was going to have a HUGE say in the finish... only to find himself being carried out at the next by the French favourite swerving violently to his left and running out... taking Quantitaveeasing with him... and also our profits... 🙈🙈
Amazingly that's almost ten years ago now!! 🫨
And that was also the last time the race was run as a
handicap...
Now, sadly, it's a level-weights conditions race... and it's become harder to find any serious value plays in the race... or more accurately a value play at a chunky price (value obviously still exists at lower prices)...
and I do, like most of you also do I'm sure, enjoy having a crack at something at decent odds...
...but since the Cross-Country has been a level-weights affair the biggest priced winner has been 7/1... with the
other 7 winners all returning at 9/2 or less...
When it was a handicap there were winners at... 16/1, 14/1 and 25/1...
Indeed, since it's been a level-weights race horses starting at an SP of bigger than 7/1 have returned figures of... 0/102, 9p... meaning... 15 of the 24 win and place horses started at 7/1 or less...
Horses that started at an
SP of 14/1+ have fared even worse... they are... 0/82, 3p... only THREE of the 24 win & place horses started at an SP of 14/1+...
On one hand... I suppose... it's 'easier' to split the field and find those that are going to win and fill the places... but again, most of us want to shoot for a chunky bit of value... something at a REALLY JUICY price that is going to outrun it's
odds...
But the powers that be seem to have killed that by changing the race from a handicap to a level-weights affair... a pointless move in my opinion... but it is what it is... it probably won't be changing back anytime soon... so we work with
what we have... and like I'll be doing with ALL races at this year's Cheltenham Festival I'll be giving the 'less interesting than it used to be' Cross Country Chase a bit of a trends/stats shakedown... to see what comes out the other end...
And the 'limited' stats I'll be using for the race are further down this email for you...
But before I drop those stats...
>>>See what I have to offer for Cheltenham 2024
I'll be closing the doors on my Cheltenham service at the weekend... as I need full concentration once we hit the Monday before Cheltenham... so if you want the NTF Cheltenham analysis you best not dilly dally...
Back to those Cross-Country stats... and the following is what I've managed to 'scrape' from past renewals...
The last 8 winners (since it has been a non-handicap) were all rated OR 142+
7 of the last 8 have been won by the top-rated horse (on official ratings) or a horse rated no more than 10lbs below the top rated (the only one that fell out with that stat was EASYLAND and he was still the 3rd highest rated horse in the race that year)
And looking back at ALL renewals of the Cross-Country...
16 of the 19 renewals have been won by an Irish trained horse
The 3 that were not trained in Ireland were...
Cross-Country legend BALTHAZAR KING (winner in 2012 & 2014)
And 2020 winner EASYLAND... who was French trained (but Irish
owned!)
Keeping with the Irish trained theme...
GORDON ELLIOTT has won this 5 times since it was a non-handicap... although technically he’s won it 6 times as one year it was won by Denise Foster, who was ‘training’ the Elliott horses when he was ‘banned’...
If you look at the Elliott (Foster) horses that were...
aged 8yo-11yo and finished in the first 6 LTO
...you get a race form line of...
125811231112 (6/12, 4p)
At the time of this
email Elliott has three entered... currently sitting 2nd, 3rd & 4th in the market behind the favourite... MINELLA INDO...
