HENRY DE BROMHEAD
Henry De Bromhead is no stranger to a Cheltenham winner or two...
Indeed if we look at Cheltenham Festivals from 2017 - 2023 we see he is joint third on the list (with Nicky Henderson)
with 18-winners...
Only Willie Mullins (shock horror!) and Gordon Elliott have recorded more winners than De Bromhead in
the same period...
The overall stats for De Bromhead read...
18/141 | 13% S/R | +£160.77 BFLSP (27% above expectation)
Win & Place -
36/141 | 26% S/R
Solid... steady... and just what you'd expect from De Bromhead...
But here's where it gets interesting...
ALL 18 of his winners ran in a GRADED race last time out...
Those that came into the Cheltenham Festival having NOT run in a Graded race LTO returned...
0/35, 4p
...and if you know me, you know I won't stop there 😁
...to start with I removed the year filter and just concentrated on all Cheltenham Festivals that De Bromhead had a runner at... that gave him a total of 21 Cheltenham Festival winners...
How many of them warmed up for Cheltenham by running in a Graded race?
20 of them...
So even extending the period under analysis only produced ONE De Bromhead winner that warmed up outside of Graded company...
For the record that winner was SIZING AUSTRALIA in the 2011 X-Country Chase... and being that it's the X-Country Chase it doesn't really count anyway!? 🤣🤭
That means De Bromhead's overall figures at the Cheltenham Festival with runners that DIDN'T run in a Graded race LTO read...
1/52 | 2% S/R | -£40.67 - W&P 6/52 | 12% S/R
68% below expectation
So the figures stack up even when we expand the period under examination...
But let's flip back to the initial time-frame... 2017-2023... as 2017 was when De Bromhead really started to
figure out how to produce Cheltenham winners on a regular basis...
Using his runners that ran in a Graded race LTO as my starting point... I uncovered the following De Bromhead Cheltenham Festival
angle...
H De Bromhead | Cheltenham Festival | Ran in a GRADED race LTO | DSLR 28-119 | Won or Placed on 1 of last 3 starts | 0-1 starts in calendar year
18/74 | 24% S/R | +£227.77 BFLSP (+£99.03 LSP)
Win & Place - 31/74 | 42%
S/R
79% above expectation | E/W returns = +£110.60
Those are some solid figures from De
Bromhead and, unsurprisingly, he seems to be plotting a path to the Festival from some way out... and if he thinks he has a live player then chances are they are taking in Graded company on their final start before Cheltenham... it likely gives De Bromhead the last piece of the jigsaw he needs so he can fine-tune things before March...
The angle hasn't returned profit every year...in 2022 it dropped -0.86 and in 2018 it dropped -1.57... but that's nothing but a minor blip... I'd be concerned if it was swinging wildly between profit and loss... but it isn't... so I'm not worried...
I have that angle firmly plugged in to my database and when a qualifier appears over any of the 4-days next week it will be highlighted in the relevant race analysis guide, and will form part of my overall assessment of a race...
Analysis you can get your hands on by heading HERE>>>
That's not to say I will be ignoring any De Bromhead horses that DON'T fit the above angle... far from it... but I'd probably be wanting some solid pointers from other avenues to make me want to stick my money on a De Bromhead horse that came in NOT fitting the above angle/profile...
Anyway... that's enough from me today... I'm off to continue my deep dive into the 2024 Cheltenham Festival...
There's a hell of a lot to cover and the 4-days are ticking ever closer...
