Two days to go and then the Cheltenham November Meeting hits us square in the chops...
And I can't
wait!!
Naturally I'm deep in the trends and stats for the meeting right now, getting things prepared for full (and trial week) members, as I'll be covering all three days of the meeting using my tried and trusted NTF methods...
And during my deep
data digging last night I came across the following stats/angle... that looks at...
Horses who had previously won a race at the Cheltenham November Meeting...
But before I drop those stats...
Many thanks to those of you that have already signed up for the Trial Week on NTF...
You should have picked up my early coverage of The Paddy Power Gold Cup by now and I'll have the NTF Stats Sheet for tomorrow's racing ready later on today...
There's still a few places left on the trial week membership so if you
are wanting to hook up, don't dilly-dally, go get your place secured NOW...
[Special Offer] Trial NTF for one week for only
£10!>>>
The doors will close tonight so I can have full brain space for the Cheltenham November Meeting...
Back to my deep data digging though... and here are those Stats I uncovered for the meeting...
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I wanted to see how horses that had PREVIOUSLY WON AT THE CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER MEETING performed when running at subsequent renewals of the 3-day meeting...
I already had some loose notes on these types but I wanted to get them tightened up... so I went digging... looked all the way back to the 2004 November meeting... and uncovered the following...
Cheltenham November Meeting | Horses that had Previously WON at Cheltenham November Meeting (Since 2004)
37/220 | 17% S/R | +£27.14 LSP - W&P 79/220 | 36%
S/R
11% above exp
Tight enough figures on their own and it's clear that plenty previous winners at the meeting manage to find themselves winning
at the meeting again in the future...
And those figures can be improved upon by using one simple filter...
Cheltenham November Meeting | Chases | Previously WON at Cheltenham November Meeting
33/164 | 20% S/R | +£41.64 LSP - W&P 62/164 | 38% S/R
18% above exp
I don't want to squeeze the stats too much and as a starting point sort of thing concentrating on chases looks a good way into these previous winners... but there is one additional filter I want to add... just to tighten things up a little bit more... that filter being...
Horses starting at an SP of 14/1 or less
So basically knocking out those 'outsiders' that start at 16/1+...
Only 1 of 27 16/1+ qualifiers have managed to win (that was Kingswell Theatre in the X-Country Chase in 2020) and only 2 others managed to place... so I'm happy to knock those bigger prices out of the equation (for this particular 'angle')...
Giving a tightened up set of
figures of...
32/132 | 24% S/R | +£50.64 LSP - W&P 58/132 | 44% S/R
24% above exp
Since 2004 there has been a winner on the 'angle' every single year apart from 2021...
There were 8 qualifiers that year... 0 winners but FIVE
placing (they returned a form line of 533F3223)
PAUL NICHOLLS comes out the best if we dig into the angle and then close in on the trainers... as his horses that qualified on
the angle AND were running off a break of 16+ days return figures of...
4/18 | 22% S/R | +£10 LSP - W&P 11/18 | 61% S/R
E/W profits = +£18.35 LSP
Obviously there is never any guarantee that the stats will hold up again this year...
But it's good knowledge for us to have... and it's helps to know that looking for horses with previous winning meeting form has been a profitable way in to things at Cheltenham in November...
Personally I wouldn't use this as an angle or system to follow blindly... but if I see a horse that fits the angle then it will be a solid indicator for me to look closer at the horse in question, knowing they have at least one strong positive statistical pointer on their side...
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I'll leave you with that for now and I'm going to get back to a some more data digging and building the analysis for NTF Members...
And remember... doors to the Trial Week Membership close tonight...
So if you want to be a part of it you best get acting quickly...
>>Secure your place on NTF for the next 7-days
Cheers - Ben (NTF)
p.s. if you missed yesterday's '3 to follow...' post you can get that on the link below...
https://www.narrowingthefield.co.uk/three-to-follow-from-the-weekend-10th-11th-12th-november/
