Some competitive races to tuck into on Saturday over the sticks...
...some un-competitive races as well... but we can ignore them... I'd much rather try and pick apart one of the tasty handicaps...
...and I'll always look to my trusty Race Trends approach as the starting point for my Handicap analysis...
The Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton (2.25) is the main focus for me this weekend...
Paul Nicholls looks to hold the aces... if the betting is to be believed... and I get that... he's won the race a monster ELEVEN times... and had 9 others place... he knows exactly what it takes to get one ready for the race...
But I'm taking a swing at two that are much further down the betting>>>
The Badger Beers Chase has been a solid race on the trends front... and these are the trends I've used to dig into the race this year...
1 15/15 1-12 Handicap Chase starts
2 15/15 had previously run over further than 3m1f
3 14/15 no more than 3 handicap chase wins
4 14/15 were rated OR 144 or less
5 14/15 had 25 or less career starts
6 14/15 had 4-17 chase starts
They've been a strong guide to the usual profile of winners of this race... but only a guide... I like to match them up with my vast library of horse and trainer notes to find the horses with the best profile for the race and also the best profile to be able to perform under the
conditions...
Swing the bat with me in the Badger
tomorrow>>>
