Trends to help you nail the Derby winner...

Published: Fri, 05/27/22

With the Derby just over a week away I thought now would be a great time to start laying down the trends for the 1m4f colts classic, run over the twisting and turning undulations of Epsom Downs...

It's a race I'll be giving full coverage to on the NTF Summer Service, along with a host of other races during the two day extravaganza (the 'fastest race in the world', or the Dash to you and I, has long been a strong race on the trends front).

The Sir Michael Stoute trained DESERT CROWN currently heads the Derby market at around 7/4 although recent results in the race tell us the market hasn't been the best guide, and gives us plenty hope to find something a bit juicier to side with, with the last six winners returning at SP's of...16/1, 25/1, 13/2, 16/1, 40/1 and 13/2... indeed only four of the last 15 favs have managed to win the race (Golden Horn, Australia, Camelot & Authorized).

Race Trends, as always, are my starting point for a race of this nature and I'll be using the following set as the basis of my analysis on the full NTF Members Service...

Derby Trends 2022

1 15/15 top 3 finish LTO (beaten no more than 4L)

2 15/15 OR 107+ (or didn't have a rating yet)

3 15/15 won 1 of last 3 starts

4 15/15 sired by a G1 winner

5 14/15 previously ran at Graded level

6 14/15 won 1 of their first 2 career starts

I've only put the top 12 in the market through those trends so far and FIVE of them pass all of the trends.

DESERT CROWN is one of them... so on the trends side at least I can't fault him there...

The trends are only to give me a pointer and a general overview of the race, however, and I try not to get to tied to them and like to use them alongside my exhaustive private notes that I'm constantly updating each and every day.

The Derby won't be the only race I'll be covering at Epsom next week, I usually cover three races on the Friday and a further three on the Saturday, the unique layout of the Epsom track means that similar types win the same races each season, making it a strong couple of days for the trends analysis approach...

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As well as all of the usual race trends analysis the NTF Stats Sheets are also now in full swing for the summer months, as the form begins to settle down more and more I'm able to make better use of my deep note taking approach, filling up the Daily NTF Stats Sheets with numerous PC (Prime Condition) and Handicap Sleepers for members to take advantage of.

You can find examples of the NTF Stats Sheets on the following page...

>>NTF Stats Sheet examples

I'll be back with you again on Monday, with the latest installment of the NTF Notebook.

Until then...

Cheers and happy punting

Ben (NTF)

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