How the exclusive NTF Daily Stats Sheet works...

Published: Thu, 07/15/21

Evening

Quite a few of you have been asking about the NTF 'Daily Stats Sheets' and wanting to know more about the (relatively) new addition to the full service.

So let me explain...

The NTF Stats Sheets that I provide for full members are a conglomeration of pointers that are being highlighted to me by the various databases I use to store my own personal racing/horse notes.

The bulk of the stats sheet consists of 'Prime Condition' horses or 'Handicap Sleepers' horses, so that's horses that I consider to be running under or near Prime Conditions for the following days racing and if that race is also a Handicap then it's a high likelihood that the horse will also be a Handicap Sleeper, which is a horse that is currently sitting on a handicap mark on or below it's highest previous winning mark (so in theory it is currently 'Handicapped to win').

From my databases I pull out those types of horses (Prime Condition Horse/Handicap Sleepers) to draw up a 'shortlist' or 'potentials' for the next days racing, highlighting the horse and it's exact Prime Conditions and the race it is entered in.

There is also a section on the Stats Sheet that highlights 'Daily Trend/Angle Pointers' and again those are horses that are highlighted to me on my databases from my own personal angles/systems that I have sourced and plugged in.

Now it isn't a simple case of backing all horses that are highlighted and leaving it at that (if only!), there are numerous other considerations to factor in before deciding which (if any) are worthy of backing (Horse form, yard form, draw, potential for changing conditions...etc...) and my notes are simply the starting point/way in for my own betting.

And that is what you can also use the Stats Sheet for; a starting point/way in for your own punting...

There is also, however, a section at the bottom of every Stats Sheet titled 'Ben's Thoughts' and this is where I detail which horses I am personally backing from the highlighted horses.

This was the 'Ben's Thoughts' section from Tuesday...

'On first look through the potentials it’s GOOD IMPRESSION (2.35 Bath) that interests me. He’s only won twice in his 34 race career but both those wins have come under today’s conditions (Turf | C6 Hcps | OR 53 or less = 11 (2/2 - both career wins) and Tom Marquand back in the saddle certainly catches the eye. The jockey is 626222 when riding the horse, all when the horse was trained by Ali Strong, and this is the first time Dai Burchell has ever booked Tom Marquand. I also noted a micro-angle from the trainer at Bath…D Burchell | Bath C6 Handicaps | 1m-1m5f = 1281121 (4/7, 2p – since 2014) and I’ll take an E/W stab at the 6yo here.'

Result = Good Impression 2nd at 9/1 (beaten a short-head)

A couple of others went close from the stats sheet but GOOD IMPRESSION was the only one I personally backed as he looked to hold the best chance of pulling in some profit once I had considered all other factors...

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The Stats Sheets are always send out the evening before the next days racing so that members have plenty of time to use them for their own punting and analysis.

If anything else comes to my attention on the morning of racing then that's where the NTF Members Telegram Group comes into play, as it did yesterday.

I posted the following at 9.33am on Tuesday...

"Morning all. Picking through my databases again and spotted a Michael Bell angle for Beverley that I quite like...

PLATFORM NINETEEN (3.15 Bev) qualifies on that angle today.

Horse returning off a 648 day break so obvious concern there so went digging and checked the record of M Bell runners returning off a break of 300+ days and since 2013 it reads...5/25, 4p..improving to 5/15, 3p for those that start at 12-1 or less...so he can ready them off a break.

Horse himself is 2 from 2 at Beverley and 4/6 over 2m+ trips and is also 4/4 in the July-Sept period...so positives there also.

Chance that the fav - Golden Flame - gets a free crack at things on the front end so that is also a bit of a concern and M Johnston front-runners at Beverley do have solid stats...28/77 | 36% S/R | +£45.28 BFLSP - 38% above exp | 76% PRB...improving to a 48% S/R when favs...so no surprise if that one justifies favouritism...but Platform Nineteen is interesting...all depends on how fit Bell has him I suppose..."

Result = PLATFORM NINETEEN WINNER at 5/1

I also then posted the following, about a horse that was highlighted on the Stats Sheet as a Prime Condition/Handicap Sleeper runner...

"Was contemplating Proud Archi at Beverley today (3.45) as he's been absolutely banging on the door recently and he's seriously well-handicapped. Ground going soft is a worry though and would be concerned by his first time visor, with M Dods runners wearing a first time visor returning the following... 2/55 |3.5% S/R | -£35.74 BFLSP - W&P 15/55 | 27% S/R - 54% below exp | 46% PRB...
I was on the fence but ground going soft probably enough to make me sit him out..."

Result = PROUD ARCHI well beaten 10th of 13 (bullet dodged!)

As always I try and keep the full service a mix of information and pointers that allow the individual to make their own minds up about horses/races, using the same info (my private notes/angles/trends) that I also call upon for my own betting, whilst also providing my own bets and thoughts for those that maybe don't have enough time to study the racing as they would like (hell it's a busy world out there and I know we don't all have the luxury of sitting behind a computer watching horses run round in circles!!!).

The NTF Daily Stats Sheets (by the way they are 'Daily' in name only, I don't produce them EVERY day but they are available MOST days) have been a fantastic inclusion to the full service and will continue to grow and evolve throughout this summer run and beyond.

Come see for yourself...

>>>Join the full NTF service HERE

Cheers and happy punting

Ben (NTF)

p.s. if you missed Monday's free post you can get it on the below link...

>>>Monday's FREE NTF Blog post