A Cheltenham to Aintree stat that strikes at 71%...

Published: Tue, 04/06/21

Aintree Grand National week is here!

Superb!

Love it. Three of the best days of the entire season for me.

We've had snow, we've had sun, we've had wind and we've had a 150-1 winner of the Irish National already this week!! So who knows what Aintree will lavish upon us!? Hopefully not quite as random however it turns out though 🤞🤞🤞

I'm obviously deep in my own analysis for the three day meeting and doors are now open for those that want to hook up for the NTF Aintree analysis...

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Doors Now Open!

Aintree isn't a meeting I tackle all that strongly from an overall stats perspective but there are still bits and bobs of angles you should be aware of and I've highlighted a few of them below for you...

Aintree Non-Handicaps...

There have been 84 Non-Handicap races at last 6 Aintree National festivals...

> All 84 winners had recorded a top 2 finish on one of their last 3 starts (0/94 for those that hadn't)

> Horses rated more than 16lbs below the top rated in the race have won only 2 of the 84 races (returning overall stats of 2/269| 0.75% S/R | -£246.64 BFLSP - 77% below expectation)

> Horses returning from breaks of more than 75 days have only won 2 of the 84 races (returning overall stats of 2/120 | 1.7% S/R | -£78.81 BFLSP - 74% below exp)

> Colin Tizzard has some strong stats in the Grade 1's at the meeting, especially with those that finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts... 10/19 | 53% S/R | +£99.11 BFLSP - W&P 14/19 | 74% S/R - 174% above exp

Aintree Trainer...

Nicky Henderson (since 2010)...

6yo's | Won 1 of last 3 | No Headgear | 3-6 starts last 365 days | 2-5 starts in current season

14/26 | 54% S/R | +£60.70 BFLSP - W&P 16/26 | 62% S/R - 93% above exp

Miscellaneous...

Cheltenham Favs Angle...

Fav/Joint Fav/Co Fav at Aintree | 2 starts in last 90 days | Clear Fav at Cheltenham Festival LTO and finished in top 3

12/17 | 71% S/R | +£16.87 BFLSP - W&P 15/17 | 88% S/R - 63% above exp (form line of 14511111131121P11)

Some interesting bits and bobs to ponder over there...

The main analysis from myself, however, will be happening in the NTF Members Area and you can hook up for Aintree week on the following link...

>>>Join NTF for Grand National week

Ben (NTF)

Many thanks for being a loyal NTF reader