🎩 Trends to assist your 2020 Royal Ascot winner digging...

Published: Fri, 06/12/20

Amazingly the Five day - 36 race extravaganza that is Royal Ascot 2020 is now almost upon us 😵

Like everything else at present, it's not going to be quite the same Royal Ascot we are used to (for better and worse 🤨) but nevertheless it remains a high-class spectacle, brimmed full of the top yards and some of the classiest horses currently in training.

As always I'll be covering the meeting for full NTF Members, albeit not in quite the same Race Trends format as I usually would (in a 'normal' year').

I'll still be digging into the trends but with so many of the runners going into the week without a run under their belts, and the fact that Ascot falls BEFORE the Derby & Oaks, I'm just strongly of the opinion that a full on race trends approach would be far too risky.

I'll still be utilising the race trends, but they will be tweaked to fall in line with the current situation.

As well as the race trends I'll also be utilising Trainer Trends.

The Royal meeting is generally dominated by your big yards, the Gosdens, Stoutes, O'Briens, Johnstons of this world, and I've a feeling they could well have an even stronger grip on things this time around.

Since the resumption of racing those yards have hit the ground absolutely running.

Digging into my Proform database (and may I say that Proform has kicked on even further during the lockdown period, a simply outstanding weapon to have at your disposal) tells me those yards are in absolutely rude health just now...

Here are their 14-day stats...

John Gosden - 21/69 | 30% S/R | 73% PRB (Percentage Of Rivals Beaten)

Michael Stoute - 7/33 | 21% S/R | 63% PRB

Aidan O'Brien - 8/46 | 17% S/R | 63% PRB

Mark Johnston - 17/108 | 16% S/R | 55% PRB

*PRB is a much better gauge of the form of a yard than strike-rate. Strike-rate is good, don't get me wrong, but PRB is better, much better. Proform have these stats in their database and on their racecards. I'll explain the basics of PRB at a later date but trust me when I say, that 73% PRB Gosden is currently running at is hot, VERY hot. From a solid sample size as well...

It's no guarantee those levels will continue at Royal Ascot but those trainers are all absolute masters of their trade, masters who know how to get their horses to peak at the right times as well, especially at somewhere like Royal Ascot, worldwide pandemic or not!

As I mentioned, I've been drilling down deep into the stats using the Proform database, making sure I'm ready for next weeks action (and as such making sure my members have as much info as possible for what is sure to be a full on week) and in this email I want to share just a couple of the angles I'll be utilising to help me try and find some Royal winners.

Here are those angles...

Michael Stoute

Overall Royal Ascot stats (2010-2019)

20/131 | 15% S/R | +£11.13 BFLSP - W&P 52/131 | 40% S/R

15% above expectation - 64% PRB

Solid enough on their own, no doubt about that, but things can be improved plenty with a couple of tweaks...

M Stoute - Royal Ascot | Non-Handicaps | Runners aged 3yo-5yo | SP 12/1 or less

18/64 | 28% S/R | +£63.40 BFLSP – W&P 37/64 | 58% S/R

64% above expectation – 71% PRB

Much better with a couple of simple filters added in and a solid little angle to give you a starting point on the Stoute string.

Aidan O'Brien

Overall Royal Ascot stats (2010-2019)

42/294 | 14% S/R | +£103.67 BFLSP - W&P 108/294 | 37% S/R

5% above expectation - 60% PRB

Comfortably the winning-most trainer at the Royal meeting in the past ten years.

Plenty of bets though, if following blind, so again let's fire in some filters.

This time I'm only looking at 2015-2019, that's when Joseph O'Brien started struggling with his weight and Ryan Moore had pretty much the full scope of the yards horses at his disposal (prior to that Joseph OB was getting on plenty of the main players)...

Aidan O'Brien - Royal Ascot | Ryan Moore riding | SP 14/1 or less

23/97 | 24% S/R | +£51.01 BFLSP – W&P 51/97 | 53% S/R

15% above expectation – 72% PRB

Simple but very effective and an excellent starting point when looking to back an O'Brien horse.

If you want to go a bit deeper, however, then consider the above angle but only their MALE runners...

22/87 | 25% S/R | +£68.83 BFLSP - W&P 35/87 | 52% S/R

41% above expectation - 71% PRB

That's only a snap-shot of the angles I'll be using to delve into next week's Royal Ascot action, there will be plenty more available in the NTF Members Area.

Royal Ascot can be a damn tricky place to secure profits at the best of times, the trends do, however, help ease the burden and allow you to home in on those yards whose runners regularly pull in the profits.

I'll have more of this type of analysis for full members next week.

You can receive the full NTF Ascot coverage by joining up at the following page 👇👇👇

>>NTF 2020 Summer Service

*Only £85 for a full season ticket

Best of luck with your Royal Ascot bets

Ben (NTF)

Join the flat service for summer 2020...

https://www.narrowingthefield.co.uk/ntf-2020-flat-sign-up-free-list-discount-3/