NTF Summer Service & Ponte Pointers...

Published: Wed, 05/27/20

Good Morning

I've had quite a few of you asking when I'll be opening up the doors for the NTF Summer Service...

As things stand racing is set to return on the 1st of June at Newcastle.

Things then slowly start to pick up off the back of that meeting, with the 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas scheduled in for the 6th and 7th of June.

Whilst I'm delighted to see racing making a comeback, I'm personally not going to be deeply involved in the first week of racing.

I'd rather sit and see how things pan out first as it's likely to be a tricky week on the punting front.

Furthermore it's not going to be easy to apply my usual 'Race Trends' approach to the major races. For starters we are looking at...

Both Guineas being full of horses ALL making their seasonal debuts...

The Coronation Cup has been moved from Epsom to Newmarket...

Royal Ascot will have a ton of horses also making seasonal debuts, some/most of the 2yo races will be packed with horses making their RACECOURSE debuts...

The Brigadier Gerard Stakes has moved from Sandown to Haydock...

The Coral Eclipse (Sandown) will only be open to 4yo+ horses...

...and that's only scratching the surface!

From my usual Race Trends approach that's going to prove tricky...that's not saying that ALL Race Trends will be redundant, some/plenty will still hold up...but overall I'd be inclined to hold fire with my full-scale trends approach until later in the season.

I've plenty other angles I use to approach my punting/analysis so it's not a major worry in the slightest, but even still I'd much prefer to watch the first week of racing and see how things are panning out, rather that dive in head first and resume normal punting activities...the key to successful punting is often knowing when not to bet... and my many years of experience is definitely telling me the first week back after a worldwide pandemic is one of those times...🤨

Obviously if I see an opportunity to get the money down on a horse I'm following - a Well-Handicapped 3yo or a Handicap Sleeper - then naturally I'll look to take it, but I'll be wanting a serious amount in my favour in the early skirmishes before getting my money down.

So with regards to the doors opening on the NTF Summer service...I'll be looking at the second week of June at the earliest I'd say...

And more important than anything I've mentioned above, I also have to factor in the health of Mrs NTF, who is still, unfortunately, suffering the aftereffects of Covid-19. There is improvement but it's a slow road and some days are worse than others, so again, I'm in no real rush to open up the doors to the service, I'm happy to sit on things for a bit longer...

That's not to say I'm sitting at home twiddling my thumbs, far from it.

As always I'm tidying up my vast array of notes and getting things ship-shape and straightened up for what will hopefully be a full and smooth summer of racing...

Yesterday I was picking through my angles/systems/pointers for my local track Pontefract, one of my favourite flat tracks to punt at.

I've a serious depth of notes on the track from my own detailed research and today I'm going to share with you three profitable angles I have plugged into my databases for the West Yorkshire track...

Ponte Pointers...

*data from 2014-2019

Angle 1: Mick Channon youngsters

C4/C5 level | 2yo-3yo | DSLR 6-60 | SP 16/1 or less

14/34 | 41% S/R | +£99.04 BFLSP – W&P 22/34 | 65% S/R

101% above expectation

Channon isn't a regular visitor to the track but it's definitely worth taking notice of those he's does send up, especially when meeting the above criteria.

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Angle 2: Richard Whitaker sprinters

5f - 6f | Same distance or no more than +/- 1f from last start | SP 11/1 or less

13/33 | 39% S/R | +£59.82 BFLSP – W&P 17/33 | 52% S/R

141% above expectation

Whitaker only trains half an hour from the track so he's a regular visitor to the venue. The 11/1 SP cut-off filter included in the above angle is strong one to include for the trainer at Ponte as since 2014 he's had 34 of his horses start at SP 12-1+ and ALL 34 of them have been beaten (only 4 even placed). Abiding by that rule (as much as you can) will see you avoid plenty of Whitaker Ponte losers...

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Angle 3: Silvestre De Sousa Front-Runners

De Sousa on front-runners at Ponte | SP 5/1 or less

15/26 | 58% S/R | +£24.24 BFLSP – W&P 22/26 | 85% S/R

101% above expectation

Regularly and successfully getting your money on a front-runner is no easy task, lets not hide from that fact. As such it's unlikely this is an angle you could follow blindly. Nevertheless the strength of the angle does mean we need to do our best to identify these types pre-race as they run extremely consistently (an 85% win & place record is a serious figure) and return solid profits. De Sousa is a master off the front end and he knows the twists and turns of Ponte like the back of his hand...

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As always the above are just a tiny selection of the many angles I have at my disposal and they are not the 'best' or 'most likely' to turn a profit, they are simply a trio I wanted to highlight to you to help your own punting when racing returns to Pontefract.

Stay safe out there and I'll be in touch again when I've a clearer start date for the full NTF service (I'll likely have another free blog post between now and then as well so look out for that also)...

Ben (NTF)