Cheltenham to Aintree - A positive or a negative?

Published: Wed, 04/03/19

I fire out these stats every season but they are well worth reiterating time and time again...

Cheltenham to Aintree. A path that a huge percentage of runners at this week's Grand National Festival will have tread, most going straight to Aintree off the back of a crack at the mother of all festivals, the Cheltenham version.

As always there is plenty of baloney talked about Cheltenham taking too much out of a horse and leaving them 'empty' or 'below par' for the Aintree challenge, but the figures simply don't back that up at all.

This specific angle is likely to be halfheartedly talked about in the media during the Aintree Festival, generally by people giving an un-researched opinion rather than hard facts. I'm never too interested in that, I prefer the facts rather than some snappy sound-bite from a presenter.

So here goes...

I looked at the last six Aintree Grand National Festivals.

In that period there have been 126 races with 1904 runners, producing 126 winners (obviously!) and 386 win and places horses.

Here is the record of those runners that had their LAST START at the Cheltenham Festival...

75/698 | 11% S/R | +£53.58 BFLSP

Win & Place 207/698 | 30% S/R

So 36% of Aintree runners had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival.

More astonishing, however, is that 60% of Aintree WINNERS had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival!

A pretty fair indicator for anyone wondering if a run at the Cheltenham Festival is a negative for those that come on to the Aintree equivalent...

It quite clearly isn't a negative and anyone saying otherwise is simply talking garbage!

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I wanted to look further than just simply running at the Cheltenham Festival though. I also wanted to check the record of those horses that WON at Cheltenham and then came on to run at Aintree.

Here's what my digging returned...

16/52 | 31% S/R | +£1.77 BFLSP

Win & Place 29/52 | 56% S/R

Or in other words 13% of Aintree winners WON at the Cheltenham Festival. Backing them all gave you a tasty enough strike-rate and a smidgen of profit to play with (worth noting, however, it wasn't a profit each of the last six years, obviously!).

If you want to tighten things up a bit further it's best to concentrate on those that won in a NON-Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival (13/28 | 46% S/R | +£9.19 BFLSP - W&P 21/28 | 75% S/R).

Certainly an angle to be keeping a close eye on although , as always, it will all depend on how many of the Irish winners make the trip back over in search of the Cheltenham/Aintree double.

Back to those Cheltenham winners though...

I took a closer look at the Cheltenham winners stats at Aintree and discovered the following two sub-angles...

Cheltenham winners running in Aintree Non-Handicaps (SP 9/2 or less)

15/28 | 54% S/R | +£12.90 BFLSP

Win & Place 21/28 | 75% S/R

Those starting at odds-on have returned the following form line... 111111F11 (8/9)

Cheltenham winners at Aintree over 2m4.5f+ trips

10/28 | 36% S/R | +£12.73 BFLSP

Win & Place 18/28 | 64% S/R

Won't make you rich(!?) but a hefty enough 36% strike-rate at play there...

Both interesting little sub-plots for those that like to dig a bit deeper.

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There is another potent Cheltenham to Aintree angle I've uncovered and again, although it won't make you rich, it's definitely one that's well worth keeping on your radar...

Started with an SP of 9/4 or less (at Cheltenham) and recorded a top 2 finish at Cheltenham Festival last time out...

10/13 | 77% S/R | +£8.81 BFLSP - Win & Place 12/13 | 92% S/R

That angle provides the rather fetching form line of...

2-1-1-1-F-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

*Vautour (fell) being the only one not to even place and stopping the 100% W&P S/R for the angle

All very interesting I'm sure you will agree and if you hear anyone saying a run or indeed a win at Cheltenham is a negative when coming on to Aintree then just bear the above stats in mind.

Let the fun begin...

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Ben (NTF)

Majority of stats sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database